3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Charles Tapper (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #133 (range #126-#140, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #101 by DAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #133 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dadi Nicolas (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #184 (range #170-#198, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #129 and the model won't take him before #184 — a 55-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Bronson Kaufusi (age 24.8 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #87 (range #80-#94, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #70 by BAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #87 sits within 8 spots of the room's #79 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.