3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects KeiVarae Russell (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #223 (range #216-#230, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 60% — scary. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #68 and the model won't take him before #223 — a 155-spot markdown. A 60% bust probability backs the 155-spot markdown.
Draftanomics projects Will Redmond (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #233-#261, wide band). Bust probability sits at 45% — elevated. Drafted #68 by SFO in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #82 and the model won't take him before #247 — a 165-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kevon Seymour (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #158 (range #151-#165, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #112 and the model won't take him before #158 — a 46-spot markdown. The 46-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.