3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Roberto Aguayo (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #58-#72, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 44 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #109), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Jimmy Landes as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #22-#56, wide band). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 305 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #344), and at a 11% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Drew Kaser (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #168 (range #158-#178, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 35% — real but not disqualifying. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 138 spots ahead of the room (board #168 vs consensus #306), and at a 35% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.