3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Artie Burns (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #78 (range #64-#92, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #78 sits within 7 spots of the room's #71 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Kendall Fuller (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #96-#116, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #56 and the model won't take him before #106 — a 50-spot markdown. The 50-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Harlan Miller (age 21.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #73 (range #56-#90, wide band). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #73 against a consensus #95 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 39% bust number says size it modestly.