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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (QB)
JG
Jared Goff
QB · California
21.5 yo · 6'4" · 215 lb
BA
Brandon Allen
QB · Arkansas
23.6 yo · 6'1" · 217 lb
KH
Kevin Hogan
QB · Stanford
23.5 yo · 6'3" · 218 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jared Goff
Predicted pick
#27
range #25–#29
Bust probability· rough estimate
0%
Consensus rank
#9
on 20 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$44Mmodel
Brandon Allen
Predicted pick
#238
range #236–#240
Bust probability· rough estimate
65%
Consensus rank
#126
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Kevin Hogan
Predicted pick
#252
range #250–#254
Bust probability· rough estimate
27%
Consensus rank
#37
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jared Goff· QB
  • Brandon Allen· QB
  • Kevin Hogan· QB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJared Goff0
  • AthleticismJared Goff43
  • AgeJared Goff81
  • ConsensusJared Goff100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jared Goff50
  • Breakout ageJared Goff50
  • WorkloadJared Goff50
  • RAS × productionKevin Hogan100

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jared Goff
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Brandon Allen
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kevin Hogan
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jared Goff
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Brandon Allen
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #201 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #94; model has him #238 — a 144-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in passing yards: 186 → 1552 → 2285 → 3440. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Kevin Hogan
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #120; model has him #252 — a 132-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in passing yards: 1096 → 2630 → 2792 → 2867. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jared GoffBrandon AllenKevin Hogan· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jared Goff

Draftanomics projects Jared Goff (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #25-#29, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #27 sits within 11 spots of the room's #16 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.

Brandon Allen

Draftanomics projects Brandon Allen (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #238 (range #236-#240, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Career trajectory in passing yards: 186 → 1552 → 2285 → 3440. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Drafted #201 by JAX in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #238 — a 144-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.

Kevin Hogan

Draftanomics projects Kevin Hogan (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #252 (range #250-#254, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. Career trajectory in passing yards: 1096 → 2630 → 2792 → 2867. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #120 and the model won't take him before #252 — a 132-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.