3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jared Goff (age 21.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #25-#29, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #27 sits within 11 spots of the room's #16 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Paxton Lynch (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #35 (range #33-#37, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 8.0 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #35 and the room's #34 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Dak Prescott (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #234 (range #232-#236, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 42% — real but not disqualifying. Career trajectory in passing yards: 194 → 1940 → 3449 → 3793. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #117 and the model won't take him before #234 — a 117-spot markdown. The 117-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.