3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Javon Hargrave (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #54 (range #37-#71, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.2 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #54 against a consensus #68 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Quinton Jefferson (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #159-#179, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #169 sits within 4 spots of the room's #173 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 6% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects David Onyemata (age 23.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #206 (range #185-#227, wide band). Bust probability sits at 30% — manageable. Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 51 spots ahead of the room (board #206 vs consensus #257), and at a 30% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.