2 prospects · 2016 draft
Decisive factor: 101-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 77 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mike Thomas (age 21.7 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #138-#158, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #148 against a consensus #163 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Devin Lucien (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #249 (range #247-#251, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. Drafted #225 by NWE in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 178 spots ahead of the room (board #249 vs consensus #426) — but size the bet for the 77% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.