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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2016 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2016 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
WF
Will Fuller
WR · Notre Dame
22.0 yo · 6'0" · 186 lb
JP
Jordan Payton
WR · UCLA
22.6 yo · 6'1" · 207 lb
KL
Kolby Listenbee
WR · TCU
22.3 yo · 6'0" · 197 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Will Fuller
Predicted pick
#67
range #57–#77
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#51
on 17 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$12Mmodel
Jordan Payton
Predicted pick
#228
range #226–#230
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
#109
on 2 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Kolby Listenbee
Predicted pick
#221
range #219–#223
Bust probability
70%
Consensus rank
#73
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Will Fuller· RB / WR / TE
  • Jordan Payton· RB / WR / TE
  • Kolby Listenbee· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionWill Fuller0
  • AthleticismKolby Listenbee76
  • AgeKolby Listenbee87
  • ConsensusWill Fuller47
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Will Fuller50
  • Breakout ageWill Fuller50
  • WorkloadWill Fuller100
  • RAS × productionJordan Payton51

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Will Fuller
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Jordan Payton
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Kolby Listenbee
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Will Fuller
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Mid-major standout
    School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition.
Jordan Payton
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #80; model has him #228 — a 148-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Breakout production arc
    Career trajectory in receiving yards: 202 → 440 → 954 → 1106. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league.
Kolby Listenbee
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #192 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • One-year wonder
    Production concentrated in one season: best 753 receiving yards vs 4-season mean 358. Limited multi-year tape — small sample of true production.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    2 boards have him at mean rank #111; model has him #221 — a 110-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Will FullerJordan PaytonKolby Listenbee· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Will Fuller

Draftanomics projects Will Fuller (age 22.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #67 (range #57-#77, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. School SP+ 22.4 (FBS INDEPENDENTS). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #47 — don't pay sticker price. The 20-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Jordan Payton

Draftanomics projects Jordan Payton (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #226-#230, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Career trajectory in receiving yards: 202 → 440 → 954 → 1106. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #80 and the model won't take him before #228 — a 148-spot markdown. The 148-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

Kolby Listenbee

Draftanomics projects Kolby Listenbee (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #219-#223, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 70% — scary. Drafted #192 by BUF in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #221 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.