3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Max Tuerk as a Day 2 pick at #50 (range #43-#57, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 3% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #50 vs consensus #95), and at a 3% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Joey Hunt as a mid-round flyer at #171 (range #157-#185, wide band). Bust probability sits at 49% — elevated. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 529 spots ahead of the room (board #171 vs consensus #700) — but size the bet for the 49% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Graham Glasgow as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #49-#69, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 39 spots ahead of the room (board #59 vs consensus #98), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.