3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Maliek Collins (age 21.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #53 (range #43-#63, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #53 vs consensus #85), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Hassan Ridgeway (age 21.5 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #90 (range #83-#97, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #90 sits within 7 spots of the room's #83 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Vincent Valentine (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #209 (range #199-#219, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 55% — elevated. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 23 spots below the room's consensus #186 — don't pay sticker price. A 55% bust probability backs the 23-spot markdown.