3 prospects · 2016 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joey Bosa (age 20.8 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #8 (range #1-#18, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #8 sits within 5 spots of the room's #3 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Shaq Lawson (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #31 (range #24-#38, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 17 spots below the room's consensus #14 — don't pay sticker price. The 17-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Charles Tapper (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #133 (range #126-#140, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. Drafted #101 by DAL in 2016 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #91 and the model won't take him before #133 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.