2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 10-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Tremon Smith (age 21.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #137 (range #120-#154, wide band). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #137 stands alone — and with bust risk at 19%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Justin Watson (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #130-#164, wide band). Bust probability sits at 18% — manageable. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #147 stands alone — and with bust risk at 18%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.