3 prospects · 2019 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Donnie Lewis Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #149-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Brown (Starter), Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Corn Elder. Ceiling is Anthony Brown (Starter); floor is Corn Elder. Drafted #221 by CLE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #179 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Kris Boyd (age 22.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #83 (range #53-#113, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 33% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Corn Elder, Tre'Davious White (Bust), Ahkello Witherspoon (Bust). Ceiling is Howard Wilson; floor is Corn Elder. 3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tre'Davious White, Ahkello Witherspoon, Chidobe Awuzie. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #67 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Iman Marshall (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #106 (range #87-#125, wide band). Bust probability sits at 28% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Quandre Diggs (Franchise), Blake Countess (Contributor), Doran Grant (Bust). Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Doran Grant, Damian Swann. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #106 stands alone — and with bust risk at 28%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.