2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 16 points lower.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Donnie Lewis Jr. (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #149-#209, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 47% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Anthony Brown (Starter), Shaquill Griffin (Bust), Corn Elder. Ceiling is Anthony Brown (Starter); floor is Corn Elder. Drafted #221 by CLE in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #179 stands alone — and with bust risk at 47%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Duke Shelley (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #159-#223, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 32% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jamal Agnew (Bust), Ryan Murphy (Bust), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Steven Nelson (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jamal Agnew, Ryan Murphy, Tye Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #191 stands alone — and with bust risk at 32%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.