On the live board, bust risk sits at 26% and the realistic range is No. 35 to No. 155.
Brandon Baker profiles as a swing tackle at 6-foot-5, 285 pounds, the archetype the model's system pegs for him, though that read carries only mixed confidence given how thin his file still is. The model has him at No. 83 overall, 87 spots ahead of the four-board consensus sitting at No. 170 — a split that puts him squarely in dissent territory this cycle.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The model loves him and the public hasn't caught up — the kind of gap that makes a draft-night steal if the model is right.
Draftanomics ranks Brandon Baker at #83 overall — a Day 2 grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 26%, near the position baseline. Public consensus has him #187; Draftanomics's board is 104 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 3, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and bustsapart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
5 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: age. Working against him: how many boards rank him top-100 and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Brandon Baker, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.