Garrett Oakley's box score keeps climbing even as the efficiency numbers underneath it head the other way. The Kansas State TE turned 22 catches for 236 yards and five touchdowns as a sophomore into 38 catches for 389 yards and six touchdowns in 2025, but his per-play value fell from 1.222 to 0.506 over that same stretch. The model's 2027 board has him way down at No. 238 overall, while the one outside ranking tracking him puts him at No. 170 — a spot where the model is more skeptical than the room, not less.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Both of the model's reads put him in Day-3 / priority-free-agent range. If the public boards are higher, the model is the one doing the fading — check the dossier for what it isn't seeing.
Draftanomics ranks Garrett Oakley at #238 overall — a Day 3 grade. The model's case leans on scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 35%, near the position baseline. Public consensus has him #170; Draftanomics's board is 68 spots lower — the model sees a gap the room doesn't.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Too early to project a career arc.
No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, scout consensus, and power-5 production share.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.
Everything that could go wrong with Garrett Oakley, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.