On the live board, bust risk sits at 29% and the realistic range is No. 12 to No. 86.
Jadan Baugh runs like a back who never read the label on his own 214-pound frame, changing direction well enough to make defenders miss angles they're used to closing. The model board has him all the way up at No. 23 overall, a jump of 45 spots over the No. 68 consensus rank, and that's about as wide a gap as you'll see on this year's sheet.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Model and consensus see the same player here. No reason to second-guess this rank.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics ranks Jadan Baugh at #23 overall — a 1st round grade. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his age curve. Bust risk projects at 29%, near the position baseline. Public consensus has him #57; Draftanomics's board is 34 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and bustsapart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
14 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: how many boards rank him top-100, age, and hS recruit rating. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Jadan Baugh, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Closest historical matches among prior Unclassified prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 2025 | #22 | no data | TBD | 1.95 |
| Devin Neal | RB | 2025 | #184 | no data | TBD | 2.06 |
| Jarquez Hunter | RB | 2025 | #117 | no data | TBD | 2.34 |
| LeQuint Allen | RB | 2025 | #236 | no data | TBD | 2.37 |
| Damien Martinez | RB | 2025 | #223 | no data | TBD | 2.39 |