On the live board, bust risk sits at 17% and the realistic range is No. 31 to No. 217.
Will Heldt is a 6-foot-6, 240-pound EDGE who piled up more disruption in 2025 — 14.5 TFL and six sacks — even as his tackle count dropped from 56 to 46 in his first season after transferring from Purdue to Clemson. The model has him at No. 58 overall for the 2027 class, 47 spots ahead of where the public boards have him sitting at No. 105.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Model and consensus see the same player here. No reason to second-guess this rank.
Draftanomics ranks Will Heldt at #58 overall — a Day 2 grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 17%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. Public consensus has him #105; Draftanomics's board is 47 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and bustsapart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
The bracketed ranges show how far each number could reasonably move — they come from how 23–57 similar players in past drafts actually turned out.
3 public boards track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
Working in his favor: his charted catch rate allowed, age, and sOS-weighted production. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Everything that could go wrong with Will Heldt, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.