The 2020 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 253 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Tristan Wirfs

OT · pick 13 (TAM, 2020)

Actually went 13th to TAM.

89 Career Score · 5 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Antoine Winfield Jr.

S · pick 45 (TAM, 2020)

Taken 45th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.

85 Career Score · 2 Pro Bowls · 1 All-Pro

Biggest bust

Henry Ruggs III

WR · pick 12 (LVR, 2020)

Pick 12 returned a 17 Career Score over 20 games.

17 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Patrick Queen outplayed his slot by 24 spots, while Isaiah Wilson fell 217.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	CIN	Joe Burrow	QB	74	3	0	5	11	-10
2	WAS	Chase Young	EDGE	63	1	0	2	41	-39
3	DET	Jeff Okudah	CB	46	0	0	2	79	-76
4	NYG	Andrew Thomas	OT	65	0	0	6	37	-33
5	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	66	1	0	6	31	-26
6	LAC	Justin Herbert	QB	80	2	0	6	6	0
7	CAR	Derrick Brown	DT	69	1	0	5	20	-13
8	ARI	Isaiah Simmons	LB	52	0	0	2	63	-55
9	JAX	C.J. Henderson	CB	45	0	0	2	85	-76
10	CLE	Jedrick Wills Jr.	OT	56	0	0	3	51	-41
11	NYJ	Mekhi Becton	OT	51	0	0	4	67	-56
12	LVR	Henry Ruggs III	WR	17	0	0	1	177	-165
13	TAM	Tristan Wirfs	OT	89	5	2	6	1	+12
14	SFO	Javon Kinlaw	DT	55	0	0	3	54	-40
15	DEN	Jerry Jeudy	WR	64	1	0	5	39	-24
16	ATL	AJ Terrell	CB	77	0	0	6	9	+7
17	DAL	CeeDee Lamb	WR	82	5	1	6	5	+12
18	MIA	Austin Jackson	OT	57	0	0	4	50	-32
19	LVR	Damon Arnette	CB	11	0	0	0	218	-199
20	JAX	K'Lavon Chaisson	EDGE	50	0	0	1	70	-50
21	PHI	Jalen Reagor	WR	34	0	0	2	120	-99
22	MIN	Justin Jefferson	WR	86	4	2	6	2	+20
23	LAC	Kenneth Murray	LB	67	0	0	5	27	-4
24	NOR	Cesar Ruiz	C	66	0	0	6	32	-8
25	SFO	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	72	0	0	5	14	+11
26	GNB	Jordan Love	QB	49	0	0	3	72	-46
27	SEA	Jordyn Brooks	LB	75	0	1	5	10	+17
28	BAL	Patrick Queen	LB	83	2	0	6	4	+24
29	TEN	Isaiah Wilson	OT	3	0	0	0	246	-217
30	MIA	Noah Igbinoghene	CB	41	0	0	1	96	-66
31	MIN	Jeff Gladney	CB	41	0	0	1	95	-64
32	KAN	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB	31	0	0	1	128	-96

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2020 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Tristan Wirfs	OT	13	TAM	89	5	2	91
2	Justin Jefferson	WR	22	MIN	86	4	2	94
3	Antoine Winfield Jr.	S	45	TAM	85	2	1	85
4	Patrick Queen	LB	28	BAL	83	2	0	101
5	CeeDee Lamb	WR	17	DAL	82	5	1	95
6	Justin Herbert	QB	6	LAC	80	2	0	95
7	Xavier McKinney	S	36	NYG	80	1	1	82
8	Jalen Hurts	QB	53	PHI	78	3	0	93
9	AJ Terrell	CB	16	ATL	77	0	0	93
10	Jordyn Brooks	LB	27	SEA	75	0	1	97
11	Joe Burrow	QB	1	CIN	74	3	0	77
12	Jaylon Johnson	CB	50	CHI	74	2	0	77
13	Kamren Curl	S	216	WAS	72	0	0	93
14	Brandon Aiyuk	WR	25	SFO	72	0	0	69
15	Tyler Biadasz	C	146	DAL	71	1	0	92
16	L'Jarius Sneed	S	138	KAN	71	0	0	69
17	Trevon Diggs	CB	51	DAL	70	2	1	67
18	Michael Onwenu	G	182	NWE	70	0	0	98
19	Michael Pittman Jr.	WR	34	IND	69	0	0	95
20	Derrick Brown	DT	7	CAR	69	1	0	84
21	Grant Delpit	S	44	CLE	69	0	0	78
22	Jonah Jackson	G	75	DET	69	1	0	78
23	Damien Lewis	G	69	SEA	69	0	0	93
24	Jeremy Chinn	S	64	CAR	68	0	0	86
25	Alex Highsmith	LB	102	PIT	68	0	0	90
26	Kyle Dugger	S	37	NWE	68	0	0	90
27	Kenneth Murray	LB	23	LAC	67	0	0	90
28	Ezra Cleveland	OT	58	MIN	67	0	0	93
29	Logan Wilson	LB	65	CIN	67	0	0	83
30	Jonathan Taylor	RB	41	IND	66	3	1	84
31	Tua Tagovailoa	QB	5	MIA	66	1	0	78
32	Cesar Ruiz	C	24	NOR	66	0	0	89

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

45
Antoine Winfield Jr.S · TAM
Taken 45th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.
216
Kamren CurlS · WAS
Taken 216th; career value ranks 13th in the class.
146
Tyler BiadaszC · DAL
Taken 146th; career value ranks 15th in the class.
182
Michael OnwenuG · NWE
Taken 182nd; career value ranks 18th in the class.
138
L'Jarius SneedS · KAN
Taken 138th; career value ranks 16th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

12
Henry Ruggs IIIWR · LVR
Pick 12 returned a 17 Career Score over 20 games.
19
Damon ArnetteCB · LVR
Pick 19 returned a 11 Career Score over 15 games.
29
Isaiah WilsonOT · TEN
Pick 29 returned a 3 Career Score over 1 games.
3
Jeff OkudahCB · DET
Pick 3 returned a 46 Career Score over 50 games.
9
C.J. HendersonCB · JAX
Pick 9 returned a 45 Career Score over 53 games.

Every team's 2020 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.