The 2021 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 259 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Patrick Surtain II

CB · pick 9 (DEN, 2021)

Actually went 9th to DEN.

91 Career Score · 4 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Creed Humphrey

OL · pick 63 (KAN, 2021)

Taken 63rd; career value ranks 3rd in the class.

89 Career Score · 4 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Trey Lance

QB · pick 3 (SFO, 2021)

Pick 3 returned a 21 Career Score over 16 games.

21 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Patrick Surtain II outplayed his slot by 8 spots, while Trey Lance fell 152.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	JAX	Trevor Lawrence	QB	74	1	0	5	11	-10
2	NYJ	Zach Wilson	QB	38	0	0	3	98	-96
3	SFO	Trey Lance	QB	21	0	0	0	155	-152
4	ATL	Kyle Pitts	TE	60	1	0	5	35	-31
5	CIN	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	87	5	2	5	4	+1
6	MIA	Jaylen Waddle	WR	62	0	0	5	26	-20
7	DET	Penei Sewell	OL	90	4	3	5	2	+5
8	CAR	Jaycee Horn	CB	65	2	0	3	24	-16
9	DEN	Patrick Surtain II	CB	91	4	2	5	1	+8
10	PHI	DeVonta Smith	WR	72	0	0	5	13	-3
11	CHI	Justin Fields	QB	56	0	0	4	44	-33
12	DAL	Micah Parsons	LB	87	5	3	4	5	+7
13	LAC	Rashawn Slater	OL	65	2	0	3	22	-9
14	NYJ	Alijah Vera-Tucker	OL	54	0	0	2	50	-36
15	NWE	Mac Jones	QB	54	1	0	3	49	-34
16	ARI	Zaven Collins	LB	52	0	0	4	54	-38
17	LVR	Alex Leatherwood	OL	20	0	0	1	158	-141
18	MIA	Jaelan Phillips	DL	55	0	0	2	47	-29
19	WAS	Jamin Davis	LB	37	0	0	2	103	-84
20	NYG	Kadarius Toney	WR	24	0	0	0	143	-123
21	IND	Kwity Paye	DL	59	0	0	5	36	-15
22	TEN	Caleb Farley	CB	20	0	0	0	157	-135
23	MIN	Christian Darrisaw	OL	59	0	0	4	38	-15
24	PIT	Najee Harris	RB	47	1	0	4	75	-51
25	JAX	Travis Etienne	RB	51	0	0	4	60	-35
26	CLE	Greg Newsome II	CB	59	0	0	4	37	-11
27	BAL	Rashod Bateman	WR	46	0	0	3	78	-51
28	NOR	Payton Turner	EDGE	28	0	0	0	126	-98
29	GNB	Eric Stokes	CB	52	0	0	4	56	-27
30	BUF	Gregory Rousseau	DL	62	0	0	5	29	+1
31	BAL	Odafe Oweh	EDGE	58	0	0	1	40	-9
32	TAM	Joe Tryon-Shoyinka	OLB	49	0	0	3	70	-38

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2021 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Patrick Surtain II	CB	9	DEN	91	4	2	80
2	Penei Sewell	OL	7	DET	90	4	3	83
3	Creed Humphrey	OL	63	KAN	89	4	2	85
4	Ja'Marr Chase	WR	5	CIN	87	5	2	78
5	Micah Parsons	LB	12	DAL	87	5	3	77
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR	112	DET	85	4	2	83
7	Landon Dickerson	OL	37	PHI	77	3	0	78
8	Quinn Meinerz	C	98	DEN	76	1	2	79
9	Trey Smith	OL	226	KAN	76	2	0	79
10	Tre'von Moehrig	S	43	LVR	76	0	0	82
11	Trevor Lawrence	QB	1	JAX	74	1	0	77
12	Dan Moore	OL	128	PIT	73	0	0	82
13	DeVonta Smith	WR	10	PHI	72	0	0	80
14	Nick Bolton	LB	58	KAN	71	0	0	74
15	Deommodore Lenoir	CB	172	SFO	71	0	0	79
16	Spencer Brown	OL	93	BUF	70	0	0	73
17	Brandon Stephens	CB	104	BAL	69	0	0	81
18	Jevon Holland	S	36	MIA	69	0	0	74
19	Camryn Bynum	CB	125	MIN	67	0	0	82
20	Ernest Jones	LB	103	LAR	66	0	0	78
21	Tyson Campbell	CB	33	JAX	65	0	0	72
22	Rashawn Slater	OL	13	LAC	65	2	0	51
23	Paulson Adebo	CB	76	NOR	65	0	0	64
24	Jaycee Horn	CB	8	CAR	65	2	0	53
25	Osa Odighizuwa	DL	75	DAL	63	0	0	84
26	Jaylen Waddle	WR	6	MIA	62	0	0	78
27	Talanoa Hufanga	S	180	SFO	62	1	1	66
28	Josh Myers	C	62	GNB	62	0	0	73
29	Gregory Rousseau	DL	30	BUF	62	0	0	78
30	Andre Cisco	CB	65	JAX	62	0	0	71
31	Samuel Cosmi	OL	51	WAS	61	0	0	66
32	Alim McNeill	DT	72	DET	60	0	0	71

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

63
Creed HumphreyOL · KAN
Taken 63rd; career value ranks 3rd in the class.
112
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · DET
Taken 112th; career value ranks 6th in the class.
226
Trey SmithOL · KAN
Taken 226th; career value ranks 9th in the class.
98
Quinn MeinerzC · DEN
Taken 98th; career value ranks 8th in the class.
172
Deommodore LenoirCB · SFO
Taken 172nd; career value ranks 15th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

3
Trey LanceQB · SFO
Pick 3 returned a 21 Career Score over 16 games.
17
Alex LeatherwoodOL · LVR
Pick 17 returned a 20 Career Score over 21 games.
2
Zach WilsonQB · NYJ
Pick 2 returned a 38 Career Score over 38 games.
22
Caleb FarleyCB · TEN
Pick 22 returned a 20 Career Score over 21 games.
20
Kadarius ToneyWR · NYG
Pick 20 returned a 24 Career Score over 35 games.

Every team's 2021 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.