Refreshed just now
2021 NFL Draft prospect
Brandon Stephens
age 23.3
On the live board, bust risk sits at 17% and the realistic range is No. 119 to No. 271.
Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Brandon Stephens at pick #256; he was actually picked #104 by BAL. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.3 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $12.0M a year. The 4-tier model gives him a 45% chance at an elite career. NFL grades have been modest so far (6% recent-3, 15% peak across 4 seasons). Model predicted $15M/yr; actual $12M (over by $3M).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#256CB·SMU
The league moved faster than our board — BAL took him at No. 104, 152 picks ahead of our No. 256 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports