The 2022 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 262 picks graded.

Re-draft No. 1

Kyle Hamilton

S · pick 14 (BAL, 2022)

Actually went 14th to BAL.

80 Career Score · 3 Pro Bowls · 2 All-Pros

Biggest steal

Kerby Joseph

CB · pick 97 (DET, 2022)

Taken 97th; career value ranks 8th in the class.

67 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 1 All-Pro

Biggest bust

Kayvon Thibodeaux

EDGE · pick 5 (NYG, 2022)

Pick 5 returned a 36 Career Score over 53 games.

36 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Tyler Linderbaum outplayed his slot by 21 spots, while Lewis Cine fell 152.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	JAX	Travon Walker	EDGE	62	0	0	4	18	-17
2	DET	Aidan Hutchinson	EDGE	69	2	0	3	7	-5
3	HOU	Derek Stingley Jr.	CB	77	2	2	4	2	+1
4	NYJ	Sauce Gardner	CB	76	2	2	3	3	+1
5	NYG	Kayvon Thibodeaux	EDGE	36	0	0	3	97	-92
6	CAR	Ikem Ekwonu	OT	41	0	0	4	82	-76
7	NYG	Evan Neal	OL	37	0	0	1	94	-87
8	ATL	Drake London	WR	60	0	0	4	23	-15
9	SEA	Charles Cross	OL	65	0	0	4	11	-2
10	NYJ	Garrett Wilson	WR	59	0	0	3	27	-17
11	NOR	Chris Olave	WR	54	0	0	4	42	-31
12	DET	Jameson Williams	WR	50	0	0	2	52	-40
13	PHI	Jordan Davis	DT	51	0	0	3	48	-35
14	BAL	Kyle Hamilton	S	80	3	2	3	1	+13
15	HOU	Kenyon Green	OL	32	0	0	2	120	-105
16	WAS	Jahan Dotson	WR	51	0	0	3	51	-35
17	LAC	Zion Johnson	G	66	0	0	4	9	+8
18	TEN	Treylon Burks	WR	25	0	0	1	150	-132
19	NOR	Trevor Penning	OT	38	0	0	1	91	-72
20	PIT	Kenny Pickett	QB	34	0	0	2	104	-84
21	KAN	Trent McDuffie	CB	72	0	1	4	6	+15
22	GNB	Quay Walker	LB	62	0	0	4	20	+2
23	BUF	Kaiir Elam	CB	28	0	0	0	134	-111
24	DAL	Tyler Smith	OL	73	3	0	4	5	+19
25	BAL	Tyler Linderbaum	OL	74	3	0	4	4	+21
26	NYJ	Jermaine Johnson II	LB	27	1	0	2	140	-114
27	JAX	Devin Lloyd	LB	65	1	0	4	13	+14
28	GNB	Devonte Wyatt	DT	45	0	0	1	72	-44
29	NWE	Cole Strange	OL	35	0	0	3	100	-71
30	KAN	George Karlaftis III	EDGE	64	0	0	4	17	+13
31	CIN	Daxton Hill	CB	30	0	0	2	125	-94
32	MIN	Lewis Cine	CB	16	0	0	0	184	-152

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2022 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Kyle Hamilton	S	14	BAL	80	3	2	64
2	Derek Stingley Jr.	CB	3	HOU	77	2	2	54
3	Sauce Gardner	CB	4	NYJ	76	2	2	59
4	Tyler Linderbaum	OL	25	BAL	74	3	0	66
5	Tyler Smith	OL	24	DAL	73	3	0	63
6	Trent McDuffie	CB	21	KAN	72	0	1	56
7	Aidan Hutchinson	EDGE	2	DET	69	2	0	56
8	Kerby Joseph	CB	97	DET	67	0	1	55
9	Zion Johnson	G	17	LAC	66	0	0	66
10	Trey McBride	TE	55	ARI	66	2	1	66
11	Charles Cross	OL	9	SEA	65	0	0	62
12	Alontae Taylor	CB	49	NOR	65	0	0	64
13	Devin Lloyd	LB	27	JAX	65	1	0	63
14	DaRon Bland	CB	167	DAL	65	1	1	53
15	Riq Woolen	CB	153	SEA	64	1	0	64
16	George Pickens	WR	52	PIT	64	1	0	65
17	George Karlaftis III	EDGE	30	KAN	64	0	0	65
18	Travon Walker	EDGE	1	JAX	62	0	0	63
19	Jalen Pitre	S	37	HOU	62	0	0	58
20	Quay Walker	LB	22	GNB	62	0	0	58
21	Brock Purdy	QB	262	SFO	62	1	0	49
22	Bernhard Raimann	OL	77	IND	61	0	0	61
23	Drake London	WR	8	ATL	60	0	0	62
24	Alec Pierce	WR	53	IND	60	0	0	64
25	Christian Benford	CB	185	BUF	60	0	0	53
26	Ed Ingram	G	59	MIN	59	0	0	62
27	Garrett Wilson	WR	10	NYJ	59	0	0	58
28	Cade Otton	TE	106	TAM	59	0	0	63
29	Luke Goedeke	OL	57	TAM	59	0	0	52
30	Zach Tom	OL	140	GNB	59	0	0	55
31	Nik Bonitto	OLB	64	DEN	59	2	0	64
32	Zyon McCollum	CB	157	TAM	59	0	0	60

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

97
Kerby JosephCB · DET
Taken 97th; career value ranks 8th in the class.
167
DaRon BlandCB · DAL
Taken 167th; career value ranks 14th in the class.
262
Brock PurdyQB · SFO
Taken 262nd; career value ranks 21st in the class.
153
Riq WoolenCB · SEA
Taken 153rd; career value ranks 15th in the class.
185
Christian BenfordCB · BUF
Taken 185th; career value ranks 25th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

5
Kayvon ThibodeauxEDGE · NYG
Pick 5 returned a 36 Career Score over 53 games.
18
Treylon BurksWR · TEN
Pick 18 returned a 25 Career Score over 35 games.
7
Evan NealOL · NYG
Pick 7 returned a 37 Career Score over 29 games.
15
Kenyon GreenOL · HOU
Pick 15 returned a 32 Career Score over 27 games.
6
Ikem EkwonuOT · CAR
Pick 6 returned a 41 Career Score over 64 games.

Every team's 2022 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.