The 2024 draft, re-graded the career receipt

The class re-ordered by realized career value through the 2025 season — Career Score, our open-data measure of what a career actually amounted to (playing time, durability, what the market paid on a second contract, and early-career honors) — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, and seasons started breaking ties. 256 picks graded. This class is 2 seasons old: grades are provisional until the rookie-deal window closes.

Re-draft No. 1

Quinyon Mitchell

CB · pick 22 (PHI, 2024)

Actually went 22nd to PHI.

39 Career Score · 1 Pro Bowl · 1 All-Pro

Biggest steal

Jowon Briggs

EDGE · pick 243 (CLE, 2024)

Taken 243rd; career value ranks 2nd in the class.

37 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

Biggest bust

Michael Penix

QB · pick 8 (ATL, 2024)

Pick 8 returned a 12 Career Score over 14 games.

12 Career Score · 0 Pro Bowls · 0 All-Pros

The first round, re-graded

Pick by pick, where each first-rounder went vs. where the career says he should have gone — Quinyon Mitchell outplayed his slot by 21 spots, while Michael Penix fell 130.

see all 32 picks ▾

Pick	Team	Player	Pos	Career Score	PB	AP	Starts (yrs)	Re-draft slot	Δ
1	CHI	Caleb Williams	QB	34	0	0	2	7	-6
2	WAS	Jayden Daniels	QB	26	1	0	1	36	-34
3	NWE	Drake Maye	QB	32	2	0	2	12	-9
4	ARI	Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	22	0	0	2	60	-56
5	LAC	Joe Alt	OL	23	1	0	1	52	-47
6	NYG	Malik Nabers	WR	17	1	0	1	97	-91
7	TEN	JC Latham	OL	28	0	0	2	23	-16
8	ATL	Michael Penix	QB	12	0	0	1	138	-130
9	CHI	Rome Odunze	WR	27	0	0	2	27	-18
10	MIN	J.J. McCarthy	QB	14	0	0	1	126	-116
11	NYJ	Olumuyiwa Fashanu	OL	25	0	0	1	46	-35
12	DEN	Bo Nix	QB	34	0	0	2	6	+6
13	LVR	Brock Bowers	TE	32	2	1	1	13	0
14	NOR	Taliese Fuaga	OL	28	0	0	2	24	-10
15	IND	Laiatu Latu	DL	23	0	0	1	55	-40
16	SEA	Byron Murphy	DL	23	0	0	1	54	-38
17	MIN	Dallas Turner	LB	18	0	0	1	82	-65
18	CIN	Amarius Mims	OL	29	0	0	2	20	-2
19	LAR	Jared Verse	DL	34	2	0	2	5	+14
20	PIT	Troy Fautanu	OL	17	0	0	1	96	-76
21	MIA	Chop Robinson	EDGE	18	0	0	0	93	-72
22	PHI	Quinyon Mitchell	CB	39	1	1	2	1	+21
23	JAX	Brian Thomas	WR	27	1	0	2	31	-8
24	DET	Terrion Arnold	CB	23	0	0	1	57	-33
25	GNB	Jordan Morgan	OL	15	0	0	1	116	-91
26	TAM	Graham Barton	OL	33	0	0	2	9	+17
27	ARI	Darius Robinson	DL	13	0	0	1	135	-108
28	KAN	Xavier Worthy	WR	24	0	0	2	51	-23
29	DAL	Tyler Guyton	OL	21	0	0	2	73	-44
30	BAL	Nate Wiggins	CB	29	0	0	1	19	+11
31	SFO	Ricky Pearsall	WR	16	0	0	1	104	-73
32	CAR	Xavier Legette	WR	21	0	0	2	70	-38

The re-draft

The top 32 of the 2024 class by career value — the first round as it would go with the careers known.

Slot	Player	Pos	Actual pick	Drafted by	Career Score	PB	AP	Games
1	Quinyon Mitchell	CB	22	PHI	39	1	1	32
2	Jowon Briggs	EDGE	243	CLE	37	0	0	23
3	Calen Bullock	SAF	78	HOU	35	1	0	34
4	Cooper DeJean	CB	40	PHI	35	1	1	32
5	Jared Verse	DL	19	LAR	34	2	0	34
6	Bo Nix	QB	12	DEN	34	0	0	34
7	Caleb Williams	QB	1	CHI	34	0	0	34
8	Mike Sainristil	CB	50	WAS	34	0	0	34
9	Graham Barton	OL	26	TAM	33	0	0	33
10	Dominick Puni	OL	86	SFO	33	0	0	34
11	Kamari Lassiter	CB	42	HOU	33	1	0	30
12	Drake Maye	QB	3	NWE	32	2	0	30
13	Brock Bowers	TE	13	LVR	32	2	1	29
14	Roger Rosengarten	OL	62	BAL	31	0	0	34
15	Zach Frazier	OL	51	PIT	31	0	0	32
16	Mason McCormick	OL	119	PIT	30	0	0	34
17	Ryan Flournoy	WR	216	DAL	30	0	0	27
18	Delmar Glaze	OL	77	LVR	30	0	0	34
19	Nate Wiggins	CB	30	BAL	29	0	0	32
20	Amarius Mims	OL	18	CIN	29	0	0	32
21	Zion Logue	DL	197	ATL	29	0	0	5
22	Casey Washington	WR	187	ATL	28	0	0	15
23	JC Latham	OL	7	TEN	28	0	0	30
24	Taliese Fuaga	OL	14	NOR	28	0	0	30
25	Kool-Aid McKinstry	CB	41	NOR	28	0	0	32
26	Cooper Beebe	OL	73	DAL	27	0	0	27
27	Rome Odunze	WR	9	CHI	27	0	0	29
28	Kimani Vidal	RB	181	LAC	27	0	0	23
29	Edgerrin Cooper	LB	45	GNB	27	0	0	30
30	Tarheeb Still	CB	137	LAC	27	0	0	29
31	Brian Thomas	WR	23	JAX	27	1	0	31
32	Renardo Green	CB	64	SFO	26	0	0	31

The steals

Day 2-3 picks whose careers rank with the first round. Scored by how far they fell, weighted by career value.

243
Jowon BriggsEDGE · CLE
Taken 243rd; career value ranks 2nd in the class.
78
Calen BullockSAF · HOU
Taken 78th; career value ranks 3rd in the class.
40
Cooper DeJeanCB · PHI
Taken 40th; career value ranks 4th in the class.
216
Ryan FlournoyWR · DAL
Taken 216th; career value ranks 17th in the class.
86
Dominick PuniOL · SFO
Taken 86th; career value ranks 10th in the class.

The busts

Premium picks (rounds 1-2), minimal careers. Scored by draft capital spent against Career Score returned.

8
Michael PenixQB · ATL
Pick 8 returned a 12 Career Score over 14 games.
6
Malik NabersWR · NYG
Pick 6 returned a 17 Career Score over 19 games.
10
J.J. McCarthyQB · MIN
Pick 10 returned a 14 Career Score over 10 games.
2
Jayden DanielsQB · WAS
Pick 2 returned a 26 Career Score over 24 games.
5
Joe AltOL · LAC
Pick 5 returned a 23 Career Score over 22 games.

Every team's 2024 class

Value captured against slot, team by team — including the pick each front office would want back.

Method

Career value is Career Score — our open-data index of playing time, durability, second-contract market value, and early-career honors — with All-Pro selections, Pro Bowls, seasons started, and draft position breaking ties. Steals are scored by ln(pick ÷ re-draft slot) × Career Score over picks 33 and later; busts by draft capital spent (within the top 64) minus Career Score returned. Consensus is the aggregated pre-draft big board. Everything on this page is computed from outcome tables — no model, no projections, no prose engine.