Refreshed just now
2016 NFL Draft prospect
Josh Doctson
age 23.4 · 6'2" · 202 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 4% and the realistic range is No. 1 to No. 55.
rank#12$6.1M
Big 12→ WAS's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Josh Doctson at pick #12; he was actually picked #22 by WAS. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 8.8 of 20 per season), and the second-contract question is still open — no new deal yet. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#122nd-deal AAV at this slot$6.1M/yrWR·TCU
We had him No. 12 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — WAS took him at No. 22. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Josh Doctson at #12 on draft night — a 1st round grade — and WAS took him at No. 22. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage. Bust risk projects at 4%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #24 pre-draft; our board was 12 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 1, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk2
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps0
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports