Refreshed just now
rank#53$2.1M
Big Ten→ DAL's 2016 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Maliek Collins at pick #53; he was actually picked #67 by DAL. 2 NFL seasons in, he's carved out a genuine role (grading 7.4 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $12M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#53DT·Nebraska
We had him No. 53 on draft night, and the league mostly agreed — DAL took him at No. 67. The seasons since are the scoreboard.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Maliek Collins at #53 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and DAL took him at No. 67. Bust risk projects at 30%, near the position baseline. The room had him #136 pre-draft; our board was 83 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports