On the live board, bust risk sits at 70% and the realistic range is No. 105 to No. 257.
The model graded Joe Williams at pick #242; he was actually picked #121 by SFO.
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The league moved faster than our board — SFO took him at No. 121, 121 picks ahead of our No. 242 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Joe Williams at #242 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and SFO took him at No. 121, 121 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 70% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Too early to project a career arc.
No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by his charted total career snaps, how many boards rank him top-100, and age.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Joe Williams, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Langford | RB | 2015 | #106 | ↑18 pts | Starter | 1.89 |
| David Cobb | RB | 2015 | #138 | →0 pts | Bust | 1.91 |
| David Johnson | RB | 2015 | #86 | ↑9 pts | Franchise | 1.96 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | RB | 2015 | #174 | ↓41 pts | Starter | 2.32 |
| Josh Robinson | RB | 2015 | #205 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.35 |