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2017 NFL Draft prospect
Carlos Watkins
age 23.4 · 6'3" · 309 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 20% and the realistic range is No. 65 to No. 213.
rank#168$1MCompMichael Bennett
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Carlos Watkins at pick #168; he was actually picked #142 by HOU. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#168DT·Clemson
The league moved faster than our board — HOU took him at No. 142, 26 picks ahead of our No. 168 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports