On the live board, bust risk sits at 9% and the realistic range is No. 56 to No. 240.
The model graded Noah Brown at pick #197; he was actually picked #239 by DAL. 1 NFL season in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 5.2 of 20 per season).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
We had him No. 197 on draft night; DAL didn't call his name until No. 239 — a 42-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Noah Brown at #197 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DAL took him at No. 239, 42 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 9%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #110 pre-draft; our board sat 87 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Too early to project a career arc.
No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.
1 public board track this prospect. Per-board breakdown loads with the live board.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by his charted total career snaps, production trajectory, and how many boards rank him top-100.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Noah Brown, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Mumphery | WR | 2015 | #175 | ↑20 pts | Starter | 2.25 |
| Darren Waller | WR | 2015 | #204 | ↑20 pts | Contributor | 2.32 |
| Dorial Green-Beckham | WR | 2015 | #40 | →2 pts | Starter | 2.52 |
| Evan Spencer | WR | 2015 | #187 | →0 pts | Bust | 2.65 |
| Kaelin Clay | WR | 2015 | #184 | ↑66 pts | Contributor | 2.85 |