Refreshed just now
rank#205$1M
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Dede Westbrook at pick #205; he was actually picked #110 by JAX. 1 NFL season in, he's producing like a real starter (grading 12.4 of 20 per season). So far, the league's aggression looks right.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#205WR·Oklahoma
The league moved faster than our board — JAX took him at No. 110, 95 picks ahead of our No. 205 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Dede Westbrook at #205 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and JAX took him at No. 110, 95 picks earlier than our grade. The model's case leans on his age curve. Bust risk projects at 4%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #156 pre-draft; our board sat 49 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 6, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports