Refreshed just now
rank#61$2M
Mid-American→ JAX's 2017 class
Limited public-board coverage (2 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Blair Brown at pick #61; he was actually picked #148 by JAX. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 1.3 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. Model expects a second-deal AAV around $6M/yr.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Speculative#61LB·Ohio
We had him No. 61 on draft night; JAX didn't call his name until No. 148 — a 87-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Blair Brown at #61 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and JAX took him at No. 148, 87 picks later than our grade. The model's case leans on scout consensus. Bust risk projects at 35%, near the position baseline. The room had him #157 pre-draft; our board was 96 spots higher.
Written from the live model's numbers — and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports