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rank#127$1.1M
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Ross Pierschbacher at pick #127; he was actually picked #153 by WAS. 3 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.4 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 3 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
High conviction#127G·Alabama
We had him No. 127 on draft night; WAS didn't call his name until No. 153 — a 26-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Ross Pierschbacher at #127 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and WAS took him at No. 153, 26 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 73% — well above the position median; the model is flagging this as a high-variance pick. The room had him #121 pre-draft; our board sat 6 spots lower.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production3
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports