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2019 NFL Draft prospect
L.J. Collier
age 23.6
On the live board, bust risk sits at 23% and the realistic range is No. 57 to No. 213.
rank#101$1.3MCompMatt Judon
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded L.J. Collier at pick #101; he was actually picked #29 by SEA. 7 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.1 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $1.2M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (2% recent-3, 4% peak across 6 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#101EDGE·TCU
The league moved faster than our board — SEA took him at No. 29, 72 picks ahead of our No. 101 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production6
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports