2021 NFL Draft order
Every pick, every round, with the team currently projected to hold it. 259 picks across seven rounds; compensatory picks land in the spring and reshape the back half of the order. Until the season sorts it out, the order is projected from reverse standings — the how is in themethodology — and actual trades replace projections as they're reported.
Draft-slot odds · through week 17
| Team | Record | Exp. slot | No. 1 | Top 3 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 1–15 | 1.0 | >99% | >99% | >99% |
| NYJ | 2–14 | 2.0 | 0% | >99% | >99% |
| ATL | 4–12 | 3.5 | 0% | 50% | >99% |
| HOU | 4–12 | 3.5 | 0% | 50% | >99% |
| CIN | 4½–11 | 5.5 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
| PHI | 4½–11 | 5.5 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
| CAR | 5–11 | 8.0 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
| DEN | 5–11 | 8.0 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
| DET | 5–11 | 8.0 | 0% | 0% | >99% |
| DAL | 6–10 | 11.0 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| NYG | 6–10 | 11.0 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| SF | 6–10 | 11.0 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| LAC | 7–9 | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| MIN | 7–9 | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| NE | 7–9 | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| WAS | 7–9 | 14.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Top 16 by expected slot shown — the tanking conversation, not the contenders.
Probabilities come from simulating the rest of the 2020 season thousands of times, with early records shrunk toward .500 exactly as much as 16 seasons of history say they should be. We graded the method against each of those seasons before trusting it; the forecast sharpens as the season goes because history shows it has earned that confidence.
