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Draftanomics

2021 NFL Draft order

Every pick, every round, with the team currently projected to hold it. 259 picks across seven rounds; compensatory picks land in the spring and reshape the back half of the order. Until the season sorts it out, the order is projected from reverse standings — the how is in themethodology — and actual trades replace projections as they're reported.

Pick odds

Draft-slot odds · through week 17

Final 2020 standings — residual spread is record-tie uncertainty only.
TeamRecordExp. slotNo. 1Top 3Top 10
JAX1–151.0>99%>99%>99%
NYJ2–142.00%>99%>99%
ATL4–123.50%50%>99%
HOU4–123.50%50%>99%
CIN4½–115.50%0%>99%
PHI4½–115.50%0%>99%
CAR5–118.00%0%>99%
DEN5–118.00%0%>99%
DET5–118.00%0%>99%
DAL6–1011.00%0%33%
NYG6–1011.00%0%34%
SF6–1011.00%0%33%
LAC7–914.50%0%0%
MIN7–914.50%0%0%
NE7–914.50%0%0%
WAS7–914.50%0%0%

Top 16 by expected slot shown — the tanking conversation, not the contenders.

Probabilities come from simulating the rest of the 2020 season thousands of times, with early records shrunk toward .500 exactly as much as 16 seasons of history say they should be. We graded the method against each of those seasons before trusting it; the forecast sharpens as the season goes because history shows it has earned that confidence.

Year20272026202520242023202220212020|RoundAllR1R2R3R4R5R6R7
DivisionallAFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC WestNFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
#Round · slotTeamSource
186R6 · 26NYJNew York Jetsactual
188R6 · 28NENew England Patriotsactual
197R6 · 5NENew England Patriotsactual
200R6 · 8NYJNew York Jetsactual
203R6 · 11BUFBuffalo Billsactual
207R6 · 15NYJNew York Jetsactual
212R6 · 20BUFBuffalo Billsactual
213R6 · 21BUFBuffalo Billsactual