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Draftanomics

2021 NFL Draft order

Every pick, every round, with the team currently projected to hold it. 259 picks across seven rounds; compensatory picks land in the spring and reshape the back half of the order. Until the season sorts it out, the order is projected from reverse standings — the how is in themethodology — and actual trades replace projections as they're reported.

Pick odds

Draft-slot odds · through week 17

Final 2020 standings — residual spread is record-tie uncertainty only.
TeamRecordExp. slotNo. 1Top 3Top 10
JAX1–151.0>99%>99%>99%
NYJ2–142.00%>99%>99%
ATL4–123.50%50%>99%
HOU4–123.50%50%>99%
CIN4½–115.50%0%>99%
PHI4½–115.50%0%>99%
CAR5–118.00%0%>99%
DEN5–118.00%0%>99%
DET5–118.00%0%>99%
DAL6–1011.00%0%33%
NYG6–1011.00%0%34%
SF6–1011.00%0%33%
LAC7–914.50%0%0%
MIN7–914.50%0%0%
NE7–914.50%0%0%
WAS7–914.50%0%0%

Top 16 by expected slot shown — the tanking conversation, not the contenders.

Probabilities come from simulating the rest of the 2020 season thousands of times, with early records shrunk toward .500 exactly as much as 16 seasons of history say they should be. We graded the method against each of those seasons before trusting it; the forecast sharpens as the season goes because history shows it has earned that confidence.

Year20272026202520242023202220212020|RoundAllR1R2R3R4R5R6R7
DivisionallAFC EastAFC NorthAFC SouthAFC WestNFC EastNFC NorthNFC SouthNFC West
#Round · slotTeamSource
189R6 · 29PHIPhiladelphia Eaglesactual
191R6 · 31PHIPhiladelphia Eaglesactual
192R6 · 32DALDallas Cowboysactual
196R6 · 4NYGNew York Giantsactual
201R6 · 9NYGNew York Giantsactual
224R6 · 32PHIPhiladelphia Eaglesactual
225R6 · 1WASWashington Commandersactual
227R6 · 3DALDallas Cowboysactual