Refreshed just now
rank#196$1M
FBS Independents→ BAL's 2021 class
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Daelin Hayes at pick #196; he was actually picked #171 by BAL. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading 0.0 of 20 per season). The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 1%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Low conviction#196DL·Notre Dame
The league moved faster than our board — BAL took him at No. 171, 25 picks ahead of our No. 196 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Daelin Hayes at #196 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and BAL took him at No. 171, 25 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 33%, near the position baseline. The room had him #161 pre-draft; our board sat 35 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports