Refreshed just now
rank#124$1.1M
Big Ten→ DEN's 2021 class
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Baron Browning at pick #124; he was actually picked #105 by DEN. 5 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.4 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $7.5M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter. NFL grades have been modest so far (4% recent-3, 15% peak across 4 seasons). The AAV predictor called it: model said $8M/yr, actual was $8M.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#124LB·Ohio St.
The league moved faster than our board — DEN took him at No. 105, 19 picks ahead of our No. 124 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Baron Browning at #124 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and DEN took him at No. 105. The model's case leans on broad top-100 board coverage and his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 10%, below the position median — the model has a tight grade. The room had him #88 pre-draft; our board sat 36 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 4, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production4
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports