On the live board, bust risk sits at 33% and the realistic range is No. 142 to No. 250.
The model graded Grant Calcaterra at pick #257; he was actually picked #198 by PHI. 4 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 4.8 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $2.0M a year. The 4-tier model has him as a likely role. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 3 seasons).
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
The league moved faster than our board — PHI took him at No. 198, 59 picks ahead of our No. 257 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Historical players this prospect resembles
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports
Draftanomics had Grant Calcaterra at #257 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and PHI took him at No. 198, 59 picks earlier than our grade. Bust risk projects at 33%, near the position baseline.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 7, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.
Read the two ends and skim the middle: the model has a real track record telling stars and busts apart, but “solid starter vs. rotation guy” is close to a coin flip from public data — that's why those two bars are grayed. For his odds of outright busting, the Bust-risk panel next door is the number to trust.
No public-board coverage yet.
Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.
The grade is held down by how many boards rank him top-100, hS recruit rating, and scout consensus.
The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.
Outcome shares from the 4-tier model. The Bust share here is a different model than the headline bust probability — for bust risk, use that number.
Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.
Everything that could go wrong with Grant Calcaterra, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.
Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.
Based on each team's roster depth at RB / WR / TE, age, and recent capital invested.
Closest historical matches among prior RB / WR / TE prospects who were drafted, by overall statistical profile. A smaller distance means a closer match.
| Player | Pos | Year | Pick | Snap trajectory | Career arc | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Deguara | TE | 2020 | #94 | →3 pts | Contributor | 2.63 |
| Stephen Sullivan | TE | 2020 | #251 | →1 pts | Bust | 2.79 |
| Brycen Hopkins | TE | 2020 | #136 | →3 pts | Bust | 2.90 |
| Adam Trautman | TE | 2020 | #105 | ↓5 pts | Starter | 3.38 |
| Devin Asiasi | TE | 2020 | #91 | →1 pts | Backup | 4.17 |