Refreshed just now
2024 NFL Draft prospect
Xavier Thomas
age 24.4 · 6'2" · 244 lb
On the live board, bust risk sits at 44% and the realistic range is No. 88 to No. 243.
rank#244CompMarquiss Spencer
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Xavier Thomas at pick #244; he was actually picked #138 by ARI. 2 NFL seasons in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -0.6 of 20 per season), and the market has paid him — a second deal at $0.2M a year. The 4-tier model leans toward the bust tier as the most likely outcome; elite upside is only 3%. NFL grades have been modest so far (0% recent-3, 0% peak across 1 seasons).
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics Rank
Medium conviction#244EDGE·Clemson
The league moved faster than our board — ARI took him at No. 138, 106 picks ahead of our No. 244 grade. His career is settling that argument now.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production1
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk3
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports