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2025 NFL Draft prospect
Tyler Baron
age 23.5
On the live board, bust risk sits at 29% and the realistic range is No. 38 to No. 235.
Limited public-board coverage (1 board) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality
The model graded Tyler Baron at pick #151; he was actually picked #176 by NYJ. 1 NFL season in, he's barely gotten on the field (grading -3.2 of 20 per season). So far, the league's caution is winning the argument. The 4-tier model has him as a likely starter.
Overview
Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take
Draftanomics's take
Draftanomics had Tyler Baron at #151 on draft night — a Day 3 grade — and NYJ took him at No. 176. The model's case leans on his recruiting pedigree. Bust risk projects at 29%, near the position baseline. The room had him #44 pre-draft; our board sat 107 spots lower.
Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 5, and it updates whenever the model does. See for what drives the take.
Scouting report
The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet
Why this grade
Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English
Consensus
The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it
Production
Measurables, traits, and college play quality
Risk4
Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem
Team fit5
How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes
Will he be there?
Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks
Comps5
Historical players this prospect resembles
Film & notes
Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports