Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

Showing 2026. Back to the live class (2027).

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Arvell ReeseLBOhio St.89%$22.1M-$33.8M
2Jake GoldayLBCincinnati87%$16.4M-$25.1M
3Zion YoungEDGEMissouri91%$11.0M-$16.9M
4Rueben Bain Jr.EDGEMiami (FL)93%$10.7M-$16.4M
5Dani Dennis-SuttonEDGEPenn St.86%$11.4M-$17.4M
6Keldric FaulkEDGEAuburn94%$10.3M-$15.8M
7Gabe JacasEDGEIllinois82%$11.1M-$17.1M
8Jacob RodriguezLBTexas Tech86%$9.3M-$14.2M
9Kayden McDonaldDTOhio St.97%$8.0M-$12.2M
10Peter WoodsDTClemson72%$10.7M-$16.4M
11Anthony Hill Jr.LBTexas87%$8.0M-$12.3M
12Cashius HowellEDGETexas A&M88%$7.9M-$12.1M
13T.J. ParkerEDGEClemson81%$8.3M-$12.7M
14CJ AllenLBGeorgia85%$7.6M-$11.7M
15R Mason ThomasEDGEOklahoma91%$6.6M-$10.2M
16Aiden FisherLBIndiana73%$8.2M-$12.6M
17Caden CurryEDGEOhio St.73%$7.6M-$11.7M
18Christen MillerDTGeorgia92%$6.1M-$9.3M
19Derrick MooreEDGEMichigan64%$8.7M-$13.3M
20Joshua JosephsEDGETennessee54%$9.4M-$14.4M
21Kyle LouisLBPittsburgh60%$8.3M-$12.7M
22Kaleb Elarms-OrrLBTCU63%$7.3M-$11.1M
23Gracen HaltonDTOklahoma82%$5.3M-$8.1M
24Josiah TrotterLBMissouri59%$7.0M-$10.8M
25Domonique OrangeDTIowa St.76%$4.9M-$7.5M
26Romello HeightEDGETexas Tech64%$5.8M-$8.8M
27Malachi LawrenceEDGECentral Florida47%$7.6M-$11.6M
28George Gumbs Jr.EDGEFlorida58%$6.1M-$9.3M
29Parker HughesLBMiddle Tenn. St.61%$5.6M-$8.6M
30Jaden DuggerOLBLouisiana60%$5.7M-$8.7M
31Jimmy RolderLBMichigan62%$4.9M-$7.5M
32Bryce BoettcherLBOregon54%$5.2M-$8.0M
33Jack KellyLBBYU49%$5.7M-$8.7M
34Red MurdockLBBuffalo52%$5.2M-$7.9M
35Wade WoodazLBClemson48%$5.3M-$8.2M
36Kaleb ProctorDTSoutheastern Louisiana63%$3.9M-$6.0M
37Lee HunterDTTexas Tech65%$3.8M-$5.8M
38Skyler Gill-HowardDTTexas Tech78%$3.0M-$4.6M
39Namdi ObiazorLBTCU34%$6.7M-$10.3M
40Quintayvious HutchinsEDGEBoston Col.51%$4.5M-$6.9M
41Tyler OnyedimDTTexas A&M54%$4.2M-$6.4M
42Kendal DanielsLBOklahoma34%$6.3M-$9.6M
43Wesley WilliamsEDGEDuke32%$6.6M-$10.1M
44Karson ShararLBIowa44%$4.2M-$6.5M
45Albert RegisDTTexas A&M57%$3.2M-$4.8M
46LT OvertonEDGEAlabama24%$7.4M-$11.4M
47Justin JeffersonLBAlabama34%$5.2M-$7.9M
48Caleb BanksDTFlorida31%$5.3M-$8.2M
49Keyron CrawfordEDGEAuburn26%$6.3M-$9.6M
50Brandon ClevelandDTNorth Carolina St.44%$3.8M-$5.8M
51Max LlewellynEDGEIowa39%$4.0M-$6.1M
52Keyshaun ElliottLBArizona St.30%$4.8M-$7.3M
53Zane DurantDTPenn St.40%$3.6M-$5.4M
54Uar BernardDT27%$5.1M-$7.8M
55Landon RobinsonDTNavy62%$2.2M-$3.3M
56Jordan van den BergDLGeorgia Tech27%$4.6M-$7.0M
57Anterio ThompsonDTWashington27%$4.6M-$7.0M
58Jackie MarshallEDGEBaylor22%$4.9M-$7.5M
59Keyshawn James-NewbyEDGENew Mexico20%$5.0M-$7.7M
60Jackson KuwatchLBMiami (OH)16%$5.1M-$7.7M
61Zach DurfeeEDGEWashington19%$3.7M-$5.6M
62Tyre WestDTTennessee19%$3.4M-$5.3M
63Bobby Jamison-TravisDLAuburn11%$3.6M-$5.6M
64DeMonte CapehartDTClemson7%$3.0M-$4.6M
65Nick BarrettDTSouth Carolina7%$2.7M-$4.2M
66Rayshaun BennyDTMichigan5%$2.3M-$3.5M
67Tim Keenan IIIDTAlabama6%$1.9M-$2.9M
68Chris McClellanDTMissouri3%$3.1M-$4.8M
69Gabriel RubioDLNotre Dame4%$2.2M-$3.4M
70Deven EasternDTMinnesota4%$2.5M-$3.8M

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.