Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

Showing 2026. Back to the live class (2027).

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Omar Cooper Jr.WRIndiana97%$21.2M-$32.4M
2Carnell TateWROhio St.93%$22.0M-$33.6M
3Arvell ReeseLBOhio St.89%$22.1M-$33.8M
4KC ConcepcionWRTexas A&M96%$20.0M-$30.7M
5Dillon ThienemanSOregon97%$18.4M-$28.2M
6Elijah SarrattWRIndiana93%$16.6M-$25.4M
7Jeremiyah LoveRBNotre Dame94%$15.5M-$23.8M
8Jake GoldayLBCincinnati87%$16.4M-$25.1M
9Denzel BostonWRWashington72%$19.7M-$30.1M
10Spencer FanoOTUtah83%$16.4M-$25.0M
11Kadyn ProctorOTAlabama81%$15.1M-$23.2M
12Monroe FreelingOTGeorgia88%$13.7M-$20.9M
13Avieon TerrellCBClemson95%$12.6M-$19.3M
14Caleb LomuOTUtah83%$14.4M-$22.0M
15Chris Brazzell IIWRTennessee81%$14.7M-$22.5M
16Caleb DownsSOhio St.97%$11.5M-$17.6M
17D'Angelo PondsCBIndiana97%$11.4M-$17.4M
18Emmanuel PregnonGOregon86%$12.9M-$19.8M
19Jordyn TysonWRArizona St.87%$12.7M-$19.4M
20Kenyon SadiqTEOregon90%$11.9M-$18.3M
21Jalen FarmerGKentucky87%$12.3M-$18.8M
22Francis MauigoaOTMiami (FL)81%$13.2M-$20.2M
23Olaivavega IoaneGPenn St.92%$11.3M-$17.4M
24Zion YoungEDGEMissouri91%$11.0M-$16.9M
25Rueben Bain Jr.EDGEMiami (FL)93%$10.7M-$16.4M
26Dani Dennis-SuttonEDGEPenn St.86%$11.4M-$17.4M
27Keldric FaulkEDGEAuburn94%$10.3M-$15.8M
28Brenen ThompsonWRMississippi St.90%$10.5M-$16.2M
29Mansoor DelaneCBLSU93%$10.0M-$15.3M
30Gabe JacasEDGEIllinois82%$11.1M-$17.1M
31Chandler RiversCBDuke97%$9.2M-$14.1M
32Chris BellWRLouisville82%$10.8M-$16.5M
33Jermod McCoyCBTennessee91%$9.0M-$13.7M
34Treydan StukesCBArizona86%$9.2M-$14.1M
35Jacob RodriguezLBTexas Tech86%$9.3M-$14.2M
36Caleb TiernanOTNorthwestern86%$9.1M-$14.0M
37Germie BernardWRAlabama86%$9.1M-$13.9M
38Kayden McDonaldDTOhio St.97%$8.0M-$12.2M
39Peter WoodsDTClemson72%$10.7M-$16.4M
40Michael TaaffeSTexas77%$10.0M-$15.3M
41Zachariah BranchWRGeorgia96%$8.0M-$12.2M
42Makai LemonWRUSC81%$9.5M-$14.5M
43Connor LewCAuburn76%$9.5M-$14.5M
44Anthony Hill Jr.LBTexas87%$8.0M-$12.3M
45Cashius HowellEDGETexas A&M88%$7.9M-$12.1M
46Daylen EveretteCBGeorgia65%$10.6M-$16.3M
47Keylan RutledgeGGeorgia Tech90%$7.7M-$11.8M
48Brandon CisseCBSouth Carolina87%$7.9M-$12.0M
49Ted HurstWRGeorgia St.71%$9.6M-$14.7M
50T.J. ParkerEDGEClemson81%$8.3M-$12.7M
51Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenSToledo97%$6.8M-$10.4M
52Bryce LanceWRNorth Dakota St.72%$9.2M-$14.1M
53Colton HoodCBTennessee73%$9.1M-$14.0M
54Mike Washington Jr.RBArkansas85%$7.7M-$11.8M
55CJ AllenLBGeorgia85%$7.6M-$11.7M
56Eli StowersTEVanderbilt62%$10.2M-$15.6M
57Antonio WilliamsWRClemson73%$8.7M-$13.3M
58Chase BisontisGTexas A&M83%$7.5M-$11.5M
59Keith Abney IICBArizona St.86%$7.1M-$10.9M
60Austin BarberOTFlorida85%$7.2M-$11.0M
61R Mason ThomasEDGEOklahoma91%$6.6M-$10.2M
62Aiden FisherLBIndiana73%$8.2M-$12.6M
63Malachi FieldsWRNotre Dame75%$7.6M-$11.6M
64Caden CurryEDGEOhio St.73%$7.6M-$11.7M
65Skyler BellWRConnecticut61%$9.2M-$14.0M
66Derrick MooreEDGEMichigan64%$8.7M-$13.3M
67Fernando CarmonaGArkansas80%$6.6M-$10.1M
68Jude BowryOTBoston Col.63%$8.2M-$12.6M
69Ja'Kobi LaneWRUSC71%$7.2M-$11.1M
70Joshua JosephsEDGETennessee54%$9.4M-$14.4M
71Kyle LouisLBPittsburgh60%$8.3M-$12.7M
72Keagen TrostOLMissouri69%$7.3M-$11.2M
73Jalen HuskeySMaryland70%$7.1M-$10.9M
74Charles DemmingsCBStephen F. Austin74%$6.7M-$10.3M
75Justin JolyTENorth Carolina St.72%$6.8M-$10.4M
76Drew SheltonOTPenn St.61%$7.9M-$12.0M
77Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMissouri52%$9.2M-$14.1M
78Kaleb Elarms-OrrLBTCU63%$7.3M-$11.1M
79Miles ScottSIllinois66%$6.7M-$10.3M
80Enrique Cruz Jr.OLKansas57%$7.8M-$11.9M
81Logan TaylorGBoston Col.59%$7.5M-$11.5M
82Max KlareTEOhio St.60%$7.3M-$11.1M
83Josiah TrotterLBMissouri59%$7.0M-$10.8M
84Caleb DouglasWRTexas Tech60%$6.7M-$10.3M
85Markel BellOTMiami (FL)54%$7.5M-$11.4M
86Sam HechtCKansas St.51%$7.8M-$11.9M
87Anez CooperGMiami (FL)50%$7.8M-$12.0M
88Jack EndriesTETexas57%$6.8M-$10.4M
89Malachi LawrenceEDGECentral Florida47%$7.6M-$11.6M
90Alex HarkeyOTOregon43%$7.5M-$11.5M
91Tacario DavisCBWashington34%$9.3M-$14.3M
92Jeremiah WrightGAuburn42%$7.0M-$10.7M
93Barion BrownWRLSU34%$6.8M-$10.4M
94Namdi ObiazorLBTCU34%$6.7M-$10.3M
95Jadon CanadyCBOregon26%$8.5M-$13.1M
96LT OvertonEDGEAlabama24%$7.4M-$11.4M
97Demond ClaiborneRBWake Forest10%$8.8M-$13.5M

3 quarterbacks are held off this ranking. Second-deal money at the position misses by more than a whole rookie contract on average, so we show a dash there sitewide rather than a number we can’t stand behind.

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.