AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
Showing 2025. Back to the live class (2027).
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Arizona | 95% | $22.6M-$34.6M | — | — |
| 2 | Malaki Starks | SAF | Georgia | 90% | $20.0M-$30.6M | — | — |
| 3 | Jalon Walker | EDGE | Georgia | 97% | $16.5M-$25.3M | — | — |
| 4 | Luther Burden | WR | Missouri | 94% | $17.2M-$26.4M | — | — |
| 5 | Tyler Warren | TE | Penn St. | 92% | $16.5M-$25.3M | — | — |
| 6 | Colston Loveland | TE | Michigan | 89% | $15.9M-$24.4M | — | — |
| 7 | Jahdae Barron | CB | Texas | 96% | $14.6M-$22.4M | — | — |
| 8 | Kenneth Grant | DT | Michigan | 87% | $16.0M-$24.5M | — | — |
| 9 | Mike Green | EDGE | Marshall | 95% | $14.2M-$21.7M | — | — |
| 10 | Mason Graham | DT | Michigan | 93% | $14.1M-$21.6M | — | — |
| 11 | Donovan Ezeiruaku | EDGE | Boston Col. | 95% | $13.7M-$21.0M | — | — |
| 12 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Ohio St. | 91% | $14.1M-$21.6M | — | — |
| 13 | Nick Emmanwori | SAF | South Carolina | 93% | $13.6M-$20.9M | — | — |
| 14 | Mason Taylor | TE | LSU | 87% | $14.5M-$22.3M | — | — |
| 15 | Travis Hunter | WR | Colorado | 97% | $12.8M-$19.6M | — | — |
| 16 | Jayden Higgins | WR | Iowa St. | 95% | $13.0M-$19.8M | — | — |
| 17 | Will Campbell | OT | LSU | 92% | $13.0M-$19.9M | — | — |
| 18 | Kelvin Banks | OL | Texas | 92% | $12.7M-$19.5M | — | — |
| 19 | Abdul Carter | EDGE | Penn St. | 89% | $12.6M-$19.3M | — | — |
| 20 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | Boise St. | 92% | $12.1M-$18.6M | — | — |
| 21 | Armand Membou | OL | Missouri | 90% | $12.4M-$18.9M | — | — |
| 22 | Mykel Williams | DL | Georgia | 95% | $11.4M-$17.4M | — | — |
| 23 | Tyler Booker | OL | Alabama | 73% | $14.3M-$21.9M | — | — |
| 24 | Tory Horton | WR | Colorado St. | 83% | $12.4M-$19.1M | — | — |
| 25 | Derrick Harmon | DT | Oregon | 79% | $13.0M-$19.9M | — | — |
| 26 | Omarion Hampton | RB | North Carolina | 85% | $12.1M-$18.5M | — | — |
| 27 | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Ohio St. | 85% | $12.2M-$18.6M | — | — |
| 28 | Walter Nolen | DT | Mississippi | 85% | $12.1M-$18.5M | — | — |
| 29 | Jihaad Campbell | LB | Alabama | 81% | $12.1M-$18.6M | — | — |
| 30 | Will Johnson | CB | Michigan | 80% | $12.3M-$18.9M | — | — |
| 31 | Tre Harris | WR | Mississippi | 95% | $10.0M-$15.3M | — | — |
| 32 | Shemar Stewart | EDGE | Texas A&M | 75% | $12.5M-$19.2M | — | — |
| 33 | Grey Zabel | OT | North Dakota St. | 87% | $10.1M-$15.4M | — | — |
| 34 | JT Tuimoloau | EDGE | Ohio St. | 83% | $10.5M-$16.0M | — | — |
| 35 | Xavier Watts | SAF | Notre Dame | 82% | $10.1M-$15.4M | — | — |
| 36 | Benjamin Morrison | CB | Notre Dame | 84% | $9.7M-$14.8M | — | — |
| 37 | James Pearce | EDGE | Tennessee | 73% | $11.0M-$16.9M | — | — |
| 38 | Landon Jackson | EDGE | Arkansas | 82% | $9.7M-$14.8M | — | — |
| 39 | Shavon Revel | CB | East Carolina | 77% | $10.2M-$15.7M | — | — |
| 40 | Trey Amos | CB | Mississippi | 88% | $8.9M-$13.6M | — | — |
| 41 | Josh Conerly | OL | Oregon | 88% | $8.9M-$13.6M | — | — |
| 42 | Darius Alexander | DT | Toledo | 74% | $10.5M-$16.1M | — | — |
| 43 | Jonah Savaiinaea | OL | Arizona | 66% | $11.7M-$18.0M | — | — |
| 44 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | Ohio St. | 83% | $9.0M-$13.8M | — | — |
| 45 | Tai Felton | WR | Maryland | 91% | $7.8M-$12.0M | — | — |
| 46 | Harold Fannin | TE | Bowling Green | 88% | $8.1M-$12.4M | — | — |
| 47 | Azareye'h Thomas | CB | Florida St. | 76% | $9.3M-$14.2M | — | — |
| 48 | Jaylin Lane | WR | Virginia Tech | 93% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 49 | Carson Schwesinger | LB | UCLA | 83% | $8.4M-$12.8M | — | — |
| 50 | Josaiah Stewart | EDGE | Michigan | 87% | $7.8M-$12.0M | — | — |
| 51 | Tyleik Williams | DT | Ohio St. | 72% | $9.4M-$14.4M | — | — |
| 52 | Myles Hinton | OT | Michigan | 81% | $8.4M-$12.9M | — | — |
| 53 | Andrew Mukuba | SAF | Texas | 72% | $9.2M-$14.1M | — | — |
| 54 | Miles Frazier | G | LSU | 80% | $8.3M-$12.6M | — | — |
| 55 | Nic Scourton | EDGE | Texas A&M | 88% | $7.5M-$11.5M | — | — |
| 56 | Ashton Gillotte | EDGE | Louisville | 81% | $8.0M-$12.2M | — | — |
| 57 | Jaylin Noel | WR | Iowa St. | 84% | $7.6M-$11.7M | — | — |
| 58 | Elijah Arroyo | TE | Miami (FL) | 49% | $12.9M-$19.7M | — | — |
| 59 | Josh Simmons | OL | Ohio St. | 81% | $7.6M-$11.7M | — | — |
| 60 | Oluwafemi Oladejo | EDGE | UCLA | 78% | $7.9M-$12.1M | — | — |
| 61 | Tate Ratledge | OL | Georgia | 83% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 62 | Ozzy Trapilo | OL | Boston Col. | 75% | $8.2M-$12.5M | — | — |
| 63 | Chris Paul | LB | Mississippi | 74% | $8.1M-$12.5M | — | — |
| 64 | Donovan Jackson | OL | Ohio St. | 80% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 65 | Kaleb Johnson | RB | Iowa | 80% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 66 | Anthony Belton | OT | North Carolina St. | 66% | $8.6M-$13.2M | — | — |
| 67 | Jalen McLeod | EDGE | Auburn | 78% | $7.2M-$11.0M | — | — |
| 68 | Emery Jones | OL | LSU | 62% | $8.8M-$13.5M | — | — |
| 69 | Mac McWilliams | CB | Central Florida | 70% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 70 | Charles Grant | OL | William & Mary | 57% | $9.0M-$13.8M | — | — |
| 71 | Deone Walker | DT | Kentucky | 66% | $7.7M-$11.8M | — | — |
| 72 | Demetrius Knight | LB | South Carolina | 71% | $7.2M-$11.0M | — | — |
| 73 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Virginia Tech | 68% | $7.3M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 74 | Elic Ayomanor | WR | Stanford | 64% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 75 | Jaydon Blue | RB | Texas | 65% | $7.1M-$10.9M | — | — |
| 76 | Jeffrey Bassa | LB | Oregon | 60% | $7.8M-$11.9M | — | — |
| 77 | Wyatt Milum | OL | West Virginia | 56% | $8.0M-$12.3M | — | — |
| 78 | Jack Nelson | OT | Wisconsin | 59% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 79 | Robert Longerbeam | CB | Rutgers | 62% | $7.0M-$10.8M | — | — |
| 80 | Dominic Lovett | WR | Georgia | 58% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 81 | Chimere Dike | WR | Florida | 48% | $8.6M-$13.1M | — | — |
| 82 | Danny Stutsman | LB | Oklahoma | 54% | $7.5M-$11.5M | — | — |
| 83 | R.J. Mickens | SAF | Clemson | 57% | $6.9M-$10.6M | — | — |
| 84 | Justin Walley | CB | Minnesota | 55% | $6.8M-$10.5M | — | — |
| 85 | DJ Giddens | RB | Kansas St. | 44% | $7.0M-$10.8M | — | — |
| 86 | Marcus Mbow | OL | Purdue | 39% | $7.9M-$12.1M | — | — |
| 87 | Princely Umanmielen | EDGE | Mississippi | 40% | $7.3M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 88 | Alfred Collins | DT | Texas | 40% | $7.1M-$10.9M | — | — |
| 89 | Micah Robinson | CB | Tulane | 22% | $9.9M-$15.2M | — | — |
| 90 | Caleb Ransaw | SAF | Tulane | 27% | $7.7M-$11.8M | — | — |
| 91 | Jaylen Reed | SAF | Penn St. | 22% | $7.1M-$10.9M | — | — |
| 92 | Dante Trader | SAF | Maryland | 21% | $6.9M-$10.6M | — | — |
| 93 | Kobee Minor | CB | Memphis | 16% | $7.7M-$11.8M | — | — |
| 94 | Donte Kent | CB | Central Michigan | 10% | $7.0M-$10.7M | — | — |
6 quarterbacks are held off this ranking. Second-deal money at the position misses by more than a whole rookie contract on average, so we show a dash there sitewide rather than a number we can’t stand behind.
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.