AAV rankings
Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.
Showing 2025. Back to the live class (2027).
| # | Player | Pos | College | 2nd-deal odds | AAV if signed | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tetairoa McMillan | WR | Arizona | 95% | $22.6M-$34.6M | — | — |
| 2 | Luther Burden | WR | Missouri | 94% | $17.2M-$26.4M | — | — |
| 3 | Tyler Warren | TE | Penn St. | 92% | $16.5M-$25.3M | — | — |
| 4 | Colston Loveland | TE | Michigan | 89% | $15.9M-$24.4M | — | — |
| 5 | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Ohio St. | 91% | $14.1M-$21.6M | — | — |
| 6 | Mason Taylor | TE | LSU | 87% | $14.5M-$22.3M | — | — |
| 7 | Travis Hunter | WR | Colorado | 97% | $12.8M-$19.6M | — | — |
| 8 | Jayden Higgins | WR | Iowa St. | 95% | $13.0M-$19.8M | — | — |
| 9 | Ashton Jeanty | RB | Boise St. | 92% | $12.1M-$18.6M | — | — |
| 10 | Tory Horton | WR | Colorado St. | 83% | $12.4M-$19.1M | — | — |
| 11 | Omarion Hampton | RB | North Carolina | 85% | $12.1M-$18.5M | — | — |
| 12 | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Ohio St. | 85% | $12.2M-$18.6M | — | — |
| 13 | Tre Harris | WR | Mississippi | 95% | $10.0M-$15.3M | — | — |
| 14 | Quinshon Judkins | RB | Ohio St. | 83% | $9.0M-$13.8M | — | — |
| 15 | Tai Felton | WR | Maryland | 91% | $7.8M-$12.0M | — | — |
| 16 | Harold Fannin | TE | Bowling Green | 88% | $8.1M-$12.4M | — | — |
| 17 | Jaylin Lane | WR | Virginia Tech | 93% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 18 | Jaylin Noel | WR | Iowa St. | 84% | $7.6M-$11.7M | — | — |
| 19 | Elijah Arroyo | TE | Miami (FL) | 49% | $12.9M-$19.7M | — | — |
| 20 | Tez Johnson | WR | Oregon | 96% | $6.4M-$9.7M | — | — |
| 21 | Kaleb Johnson | RB | Iowa | 80% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 22 | LaJohntay Wester | WR | Colorado | 75% | $6.5M-$10.0M | — | — |
| 23 | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Virginia Tech | 68% | $7.3M-$11.1M | — | — |
| 24 | Elic Ayomanor | WR | Stanford | 64% | $7.6M-$11.6M | — | — |
| 25 | Jaydon Blue | RB | Texas | 65% | $7.1M-$10.9M | — | — |
| 26 | Jack Bech | WR | TCU | 73% | $6.3M-$9.7M | — | — |
| 27 | Dominic Lovett | WR | Georgia | 58% | $7.4M-$11.3M | — | — |
| 28 | Kyle Williams | WR | Washington St. | 67% | $6.2M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 29 | Chimere Dike | WR | Florida | 48% | $8.6M-$13.1M | — | — |
| 30 | Dont'e Thornton | WR | Tennessee | 62% | $6.3M-$9.7M | — | — |
| 31 | Matthew Golden | WR | Texas | 74% | $5.3M-$8.0M | — | — |
| 32 | Dylan Sampson | RB | Tennessee | 65% | $5.9M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 33 | Jalen Royals | WR | Utah St. | 59% | $6.3M-$9.7M | — | — |
| 34 | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | Arkansas | 47% | $6.7M-$10.3M | — | — |
| 35 | Savion Williams | WR | TCU | 69% | $4.5M-$6.9M | — | — |
| 36 | DJ Giddens | RB | Kansas St. | 44% | $7.0M-$10.8M | — | — |
| 37 | Terrance Ferguson | TE | Oregon | 58% | $5.2M-$8.0M | — | — |
| 38 | Junior Bergen | WR | Montana | 57% | $5.0M-$7.6M | — | — |
| 39 | Jimmy Horn | WR | Colorado | 50% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 40 | Phil Mafah | RB | Clemson | 65% | $4.3M-$6.6M | — | — |
| 41 | Devin Neal | RB | Kansas | 58% | $4.0M-$6.1M | — | — |
| 42 | Damien Martinez | RB | Miami (FL) | 37% | $6.2M-$9.4M | — | — |
| 43 | Jordan Watkins | WR | Mississippi | 47% | $4.6M-$7.1M | — | — |
| 44 | Trevor Etienne | RB | Georgia | 47% | $4.6M-$7.1M | — | — |
| 45 | Cam Skattebo | RB | Arizona St. | 53% | $4.0M-$6.2M | — | — |
| 46 | Pat Bryant | WR | Illinois | 50% | $4.1M-$6.3M | — | — |
| 47 | Mitchell Evans | TE | Notre Dame | 41% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 48 | Jackson Hawes | TE | Georgia Tech | 55% | $3.7M-$5.6M | — | — |
| 49 | Gunnar Helm | TE | Texas | 40% | $4.9M-$7.6M | — | — |
| 50 | Konata Mumpfield | WR | Pittsburgh | 32% | $5.9M-$9.0M | — | — |
| 51 | Woody Marks | RB | USC | 33% | $5.7M-$8.7M | — | — |
| 52 | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | Syracuse | 36% | $5.1M-$7.8M | — | — |
| 53 | Jordan James | RB | Oregon | 42% | $4.4M-$6.7M | — | — |
| 54 | Kalel Mullings | RB | Michigan | 43% | $4.2M-$6.4M | — | — |
| 55 | Gavin Bartholomew | TE | Pittsburgh | 33% | $5.4M-$8.3M | — | — |
| 56 | Luke Lachey | TE | Iowa | 34% | $4.9M-$7.5M | — | — |
| 57 | Ricky White | WR | UNLV | 34% | $4.9M-$7.4M | — | — |
| 58 | Tahj Brooks | RB | Texas Tech | 34% | $3.7M-$5.6M | — | — |
| 59 | Robbie Ouzts | TE | Alabama | 32% | $3.6M-$5.6M | — | — |
| 60 | Caleb Lohner | TE | Utah | 28% | $2.7M-$4.1M | — | — |
| 61 | Arian Smith | WR | Georgia | 19% | $3.7M-$5.7M | — | — |
| 62 | Moliki Matavao | TE | UCLA | 23% | $3.0M-$4.5M | — | — |
| 63 | Thomas Fidone | TE | Nebraska | 12% | $5.3M-$8.1M | — | — |
| 64 | RJ Harvey | RB | Central Florida | 21% | $2.6M-$4.1M | — | — |
| 65 | KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | Auburn | 16% | $3.4M-$5.2M | — | — |
| 66 | Kyle Monangai | RB | Rutgers | 11% | $3.1M-$4.7M | — | — |
| 67 | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | Arizona | 10% | $3.3M-$5.0M | — | — |
| 68 | Brashard Smith | RB | SMU | 7% | $3.7M-$5.7M | — | — |
| 69 | Jarquez Hunter | RB | Auburn | 11% | $2.4M-$3.7M | — | — |
| 70 | LeQuint Allen | RB | Syracuse | 4% | $2.9M-$4.4M | — | — |
| 71 | Ollie Gordon | RB | Oklahoma St. | 1% | $2.5M-$3.8M | — | — |
How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.