Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

Showing 2025. Back to the live class (2027).

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Tetairoa McMillanWRArizona95%$22.6M-$34.6M
2Luther BurdenWRMissouri94%$17.2M-$26.4M
3Tyler WarrenTEPenn St.92%$16.5M-$25.3M
4Colston LovelandTEMichigan89%$15.9M-$24.4M
5TreVeyon HendersonRBOhio St.91%$14.1M-$21.6M
6Mason TaylorTELSU87%$14.5M-$22.3M
7Travis HunterWRColorado97%$12.8M-$19.6M
8Jayden HigginsWRIowa St.95%$13.0M-$19.8M
9Ashton JeantyRBBoise St.92%$12.1M-$18.6M
10Tory HortonWRColorado St.83%$12.4M-$19.1M
11Omarion HamptonRBNorth Carolina85%$12.1M-$18.5M
12Emeka EgbukaWROhio St.85%$12.2M-$18.6M
13Tre HarrisWRMississippi95%$10.0M-$15.3M
14Quinshon JudkinsRBOhio St.83%$9.0M-$13.8M
15Tai FeltonWRMaryland91%$7.8M-$12.0M
16Harold FanninTEBowling Green88%$8.1M-$12.4M
17Jaylin LaneWRVirginia Tech93%$7.6M-$11.6M
18Jaylin NoelWRIowa St.84%$7.6M-$11.7M
19Elijah ArroyoTEMiami (FL)49%$12.9M-$19.7M
20Tez JohnsonWROregon96%$6.4M-$9.7M
21Kaleb JohnsonRBIowa80%$7.4M-$11.3M
22LaJohntay WesterWRColorado75%$6.5M-$10.0M
23Bhayshul TutenRBVirginia Tech68%$7.3M-$11.1M
24Elic AyomanorWRStanford64%$7.6M-$11.6M
25Jaydon BlueRBTexas65%$7.1M-$10.9M
26Jack BechWRTCU73%$6.3M-$9.7M
27Dominic LovettWRGeorgia58%$7.4M-$11.3M
28Kyle WilliamsWRWashington St.67%$6.2M-$9.4M
29Chimere DikeWRFlorida48%$8.6M-$13.1M
30Dont'e ThorntonWRTennessee62%$6.3M-$9.7M
31Matthew GoldenWRTexas74%$5.3M-$8.0M
32Dylan SampsonRBTennessee65%$5.9M-$9.0M
33Jalen RoyalsWRUtah St.59%$6.3M-$9.7M
34Isaac TeSlaaWRArkansas47%$6.7M-$10.3M
35Savion WilliamsWRTCU69%$4.5M-$6.9M
36DJ GiddensRBKansas St.44%$7.0M-$10.8M
37Terrance FergusonTEOregon58%$5.2M-$8.0M
38Junior BergenWRMontana57%$5.0M-$7.6M
39Jimmy HornWRColorado50%$5.7M-$8.7M
40Phil MafahRBClemson65%$4.3M-$6.6M
41Devin NealRBKansas58%$4.0M-$6.1M
42Damien MartinezRBMiami (FL)37%$6.2M-$9.4M
43Jordan WatkinsWRMississippi47%$4.6M-$7.1M
44Trevor EtienneRBGeorgia47%$4.6M-$7.1M
45Cam SkatteboRBArizona St.53%$4.0M-$6.2M
46Pat BryantWRIllinois50%$4.1M-$6.3M
47Mitchell EvansTENotre Dame41%$4.9M-$7.5M
48Jackson HawesTEGeorgia Tech55%$3.7M-$5.6M
49Gunnar HelmTETexas40%$4.9M-$7.6M
50Konata MumpfieldWRPittsburgh32%$5.9M-$9.0M
51Woody MarksRBUSC33%$5.7M-$8.7M
52Oronde Gadsden IITESyracuse36%$5.1M-$7.8M
53Jordan JamesRBOregon42%$4.4M-$6.7M
54Kalel MullingsRBMichigan43%$4.2M-$6.4M
55Gavin BartholomewTEPittsburgh33%$5.4M-$8.3M
56Luke LacheyTEIowa34%$4.9M-$7.5M
57Ricky WhiteWRUNLV34%$4.9M-$7.4M
58Tahj BrooksRBTexas Tech34%$3.7M-$5.6M
59Robbie OuztsTEAlabama32%$3.6M-$5.6M
60Caleb LohnerTEUtah28%$2.7M-$4.1M
61Arian SmithWRGeorgia19%$3.7M-$5.7M
62Moliki MatavaoTEUCLA23%$3.0M-$4.5M
63Thomas FidoneTENebraska12%$5.3M-$8.1M
64RJ HarveyRBCentral Florida21%$2.6M-$4.1M
65KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRAuburn16%$3.4M-$5.2M
66Kyle MonangaiRBRutgers11%$3.1M-$4.7M
67Jacory Croskey-MerrittRBArizona10%$3.3M-$5.0M
68Brashard SmithRBSMU7%$3.7M-$5.7M
69Jarquez HunterRBAuburn11%$2.4M-$3.7M
70LeQuint AllenRBSyracuse4%$2.9M-$4.4M
71Ollie GordonRBOklahoma St.1%$2.5M-$3.8M

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.