Draftanomics

AAV rankings

Two numbers per prospect, because a second contract is two bets. The odds column is the chance he earns a second NFL deal at all, priced at draft time — about 87 percent of first-rounders do, about 22 percent of seventh-rounders. The dollar figure is the deal's average annual value — the AAV in the page title — what it pays per season if it happens, in today's cap dollars, built from every real second contract signed by the 2015–2023 classes. We show them separately rather than blending them into one expected value: nobody signs the average of $60 million and nothing. The order does multiply them, though — a $17 million projection you collect one time in five is not worth more than a $17 million projection you collect almost surely, so the rank is odds × dollars even though the columns stay separate. For classes already through the league, compare the projection with what the player actually signed — both translated to the current cap, so a 2015 deal and a 2022 deal sit on the same scale.

Showing 2026. Back to the live class (2027).

#PlayerPosCollege2nd-deal oddsAAV if signedActualDiff
1Omar Cooper Jr.WRIndiana97%$21.2M-$32.4M
2Carnell TateWROhio St.93%$22.0M-$33.6M
3KC ConcepcionWRTexas A&M96%$20.0M-$30.7M
4Elijah SarrattWRIndiana93%$16.6M-$25.4M
5Jeremiyah LoveRBNotre Dame94%$15.5M-$23.8M
6Denzel BostonWRWashington72%$19.7M-$30.1M
7Chris Brazzell IIWRTennessee81%$14.7M-$22.5M
8Jordyn TysonWRArizona St.87%$12.7M-$19.4M
9Kenyon SadiqTEOregon90%$11.9M-$18.3M
10Brenen ThompsonWRMississippi St.90%$10.5M-$16.2M
11Chris BellWRLouisville82%$10.8M-$16.5M
12Germie BernardWRAlabama86%$9.1M-$13.9M
13Zachariah BranchWRGeorgia96%$8.0M-$12.2M
14Makai LemonWRUSC81%$9.5M-$14.5M
15Ted HurstWRGeorgia St.71%$9.6M-$14.7M
16Bryce LanceWRNorth Dakota St.72%$9.2M-$14.1M
17Mike Washington Jr.RBArkansas85%$7.7M-$11.8M
18Eli StowersTEVanderbilt62%$10.2M-$15.6M
19Antonio WilliamsWRClemson73%$8.7M-$13.3M
20Malachi FieldsWRNotre Dame75%$7.6M-$11.6M
21Skyler BellWRConnecticut61%$9.2M-$14.0M
22Ja'Kobi LaneWRUSC71%$7.2M-$11.1M
23Justin JolyTENorth Carolina St.72%$6.8M-$10.4M
24Kevin Coleman Jr.WRMissouri52%$9.2M-$14.1M
25Tanner KoziolTEHouston73%$6.2M-$9.6M
26Will KacmarekTEOhio St.71%$6.4M-$9.8M
27Max KlareTEOhio St.60%$7.3M-$11.1M
28Caleb DouglasWRTexas Tech60%$6.7M-$10.3M
29Jadarian PriceRBNotre Dame73%$5.3M-$8.1M
30Jack EndriesTETexas57%$6.8M-$10.4M
31Kaytron AllenRBPenn St.62%$5.7M-$8.7M
32Bauer SharpTELSU58%$5.3M-$8.2M
33Kaelon BlackRBIndiana79%$3.9M-$5.9M
34Seydou TraoreTEMississippi St.59%$4.8M-$7.4M
35Reggie VirgilWRTexas Tech57%$4.5M-$6.9M
36Anthony SmithWREast Carolina50%$5.2M-$7.9M
37CJ DanielsWRMiami (FL)39%$6.5M-$9.9M
38Carsen RyanTEBYU45%$5.5M-$8.5M
39Barion BrownWRLSU34%$6.8M-$10.4M
40Jonah ColemanRBWashington39%$5.4M-$8.3M
41Sam RoushTEStanford53%$3.9M-$6.0M
42Eli HeidenreichFBNavy32%$6.1M-$9.3M
43Malik BensonWROregon35%$4.9M-$7.5M
44Nate BoerkircherTETexas A&M32%$5.2M-$7.9M
45Kaden WetjenWRIowa40%$4.1M-$6.3M
46Eli RaridonTENotre Dame27%$5.4M-$8.3M
47Max BredesonTEMichigan56%$2.6M-$4.0M
48Seth McGowanRBKentucky29%$4.9M-$7.5M
49Matthew HibnerTESMU30%$4.6M-$7.0M
50Emmett JohnsonRBNebraska37%$3.5M-$5.4M
51Riley NowakowskiTEIndiana41%$3.1M-$4.8M
52Zavion ThomasWRLSU44%$2.9M-$4.4M
53Josh CameronWRBaylor51%$2.4M-$3.7M
54Lewis BondWRBoston Col.29%$4.0M-$6.1M
55Marlin KleinTEMichigan17%$5.4M-$8.3M
56Jaren KanakTEOklahoma25%$3.5M-$5.4M
57Josh CuevasTEAlabama17%$5.1M-$7.8M
58Demond ClaiborneRBWake Forest10%$8.8M-$13.5M
59Adam RandallRBClemson15%$5.4M-$8.3M
60Kendrick LawWRKentucky24%$3.1M-$4.7M
61CJ WilliamsWRStanford22%$3.0M-$4.6M
62Jam MillerRBAlabama5%$3.0M-$4.6M
63Emmanuel Henderson Jr.WRKansas3%$4.0M-$6.1M
64Dallen BentleyTEUtah4%$2.8M-$4.3M
65Cyrus AllenWRCincinnati2%$5.7M-$8.7M

How these numbers are made. Two models, both built from real second contracts (as logged by Over the Cap) signed by the 2015–2023 draft classes. The odds column asks one question — does a drafted player earn a second NFL deal? — using only what is knowable on draft night: projected slot, bust risk, size, position. Tested on draft classes it never saw, it lands within a few points of the real round-by-round rates. The dollar column projects what the deal pays as a slice of that year's salary cap, then converts to today's cap — so it answers “what does the deal look like if he earns one,” not a blended expectation. Prospects who haven't played an NFL snap are projected on draft-night information alone; prospects who never cracked the consensus board get the rookie-scale figure and no odds, because the model has nothing honest to say about them. See methodology for how closely the projected odds track what actually happened.