3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Whitehead (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #66 (range #6-#126, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Parks (Contributor), Keanu Neal (Starter), Karl Joseph (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Will Parks (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 59 spots ahead of the room (board #66 vs consensus #125), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Troy Apke (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #166-#260, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: T.J. Green (Starter), James Sample (Bust), Miles Killebrew (Contributor). Ceiling is Jaquiski Tartt (Franchise); floor is Clayton Fejedelem (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #118 and the model won't take him before #213 — a 95-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Terrell Edmunds (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #119 (range #71-#167, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Justin Simmons (Starter), T.J. Green (Starter), Jalen Mills (Starter). Ceiling is Keanu Neal (Starter); floor is Miles Killebrew (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #79 and the model won't take him before #119 — a 40-spot markdown. The 40-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.