2 prospects · 2019 draft
Decisive factor: 75-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 10 points lower and $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marcus Green (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #228 (range #210-#246, wide band). Bust probability sits at 77% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Moritz Boehringer, Tyreek Hill (Starter), Chad Williams (Bust). Ceiling is Stefon Diggs (Franchise); floor is Moritz Boehringer. Drafted #203 by ATL in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #228 stands alone — and with bust risk at 77%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Dillon Mitchell (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #153 (range #124-#182, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 67% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Isaiah Ford, Chad Hansen (Bust), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Mike Thomas (Contributor); floor is Isaiah Ford. Drafted #239 by MIN in 2019 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #111 and the model won't take him before #153 — a 42-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.