3 prospects · 2025 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Cam Ward (age 22.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #11 (range #1-#28, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #11 and the room's #11 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Cam Miller (age 23.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #213 (range #187-#239, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Chris Oladokun (Bust), Ben DiNucci (Bust), Bailey Zappe (Contributor). Ceiling is Bailey Zappe (Contributor); floor is Chris Oladokun (Bust). Drafted #215 by LVR in 2025 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #198 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Shedeur Sanders (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #23-#81, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Matt Corral (Bust), James Morgan, Malik Willis (Bust). Ceiling is James Morgan; floor is Jacob Eason (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Matt Corral, Malik Willis, Jacob Eason (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 26 spots below the room's consensus #26 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.