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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. 2016 board/
  3. Rashard Robinson
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Rashard Robinson
2016 NFL Draft prospect

Rashard Robinson

CB·LSU·SEC
age 20.8

On the live board, bust risk sits at 30% and the realistic range is No. 107 to No. 204.

38
SEC→ SFO's 2016 class
Print sheet
⚠Limited public-board coverage (0 boards) — grade leans on stats + athleticism alone
Backtest: model vs. reality

The model graded Rashard Robinson at pick #38; he was actually picked #133 by SFO. 2 NFL seasons in, he's hung on the fringe of the rotation (grading 6.7 of 20 per season). Model expects a second-deal AAV around $8M/yr.

Rashard RobinsonCBDraftanomics #38
Print
Dossier
OverviewScouting reportWhy this gradeConsensusProductionRisk2Team fit5Will he be there?Comps0Film & notes

Overview

Headline grade, verdict, and the one-line scout take

Draftanomics Rank
Speculative
#38CB·LSU

We had him No. 38 on draft night; SFO didn't call his name until No. 133 — a 95-pick gap between our board and the league's. His career is settling that argument now.

Draftanomics's take

Scouting report

The written report — drafted from the fact sheet, every number traceable, honest about what we can't see yet

Why this grade

Which signals drove the grade up or down — in plain English

Consensus

The analyst room, accuracy-weighted, plus where Draftanomics disagrees with it

Production

Measurables, traits, and college play quality

Risk2

Bust probability, injury history, character flags, pre-mortem

Team fit5

How well this prospect fits each of the 32 team schemes

Will he be there?

Probability he's still on the board at each of your picks

Comps0

Historical players this prospect resembles

Film & notes

Clips, scout notes, voice memos, written reports

Draftanomics had Rashard Robinson at #38 on draft night — a Day 2 grade — and SFO took him at No. 133, 95 picks later than our grade. Bust risk projects at 30%, near the position baseline.

Written from the live model's numbers — projected to round 2, and it updates whenever the model does. See methodology for what drives the take.

Draftanomics Pick?
#38
Day 2range #107–#204 · volatile
Bust Probability?
30%
1.51× CB / S class avg (20%)
well above class avg
Model trust: WEAK
Actual NFL Pick?
#133
SFO · Rd 4
Career Outcome · 2 seasons?
13.3
6.7 / season avg
Career outlook

Career outlook

How this is built →
5-year career arc

Too early to project a career arc.

No public board has ranked this prospect and the model has no production, athletic, or NFL data to anchor on — any percentages here would be noise dressed up as precision. The outlook fills in once boards rank him or real numbers land.

Projected second contract
$7.7M($0.9M–$14.5M)/yr model
Role player / rotation contract
Bust risk
30%
from a model with a graded track record at this position
Public-board consensus

No public-board coverage yet.

Pin a team in your account to see how this prospect fits your roster + cap.
Scout note
Private to this device — saved to your browser, never sent to a server.
Empty notes are auto-deleted.
Verdict
Model higher than NFL — outcome pending
Gap (actual − predicted)
+95

Film

Highlight reels indexed from YouTube. Loads only when you press play.

Working in his favor: age, his charted total career snaps, and hS recruit rating. Nothing in the profile pulled the grade down.

Age
+0.04
HS recruit rating
+0.04
School strength
+0.03
Conference strength
+0.02
Strength of schedule
+0.01
Scout consensus
-0.01

Model read

Model grade
0.66 of 1
Confidence?
29%
Predicted round
2

The grade is the 0-to-1 score the board sorts by — it only means something next to the rest of this class, which is why the rank above it is the number to quote.

Pulling the boards…
Mock-draft consensus
Pulling the mocks…
4-tier outlook?

Not enough to go on yet — no public board ranks him and there's no production or testing data to anchor a career projection.

Model market value
$7.7M
($0.9M – $14.5M)
solid starter pay
Model-predicted second-deal AAV ($M/yr).

Career trajectory + forecast

Solid points = actual NFL snap share per season. Dashed extension = forecast for upcoming years.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4
Actual Forecast (comp-based)
Risk dashboard

Elevated risk — watch the flags

Risk score36· WATCH

Everything that could go wrong with Rashard Robinson, gathered in one place — the most serious flags listed first.

  • Bust probability30%
    Elevated bust risk — the profile carries one-year-wonder, age, or athleticism red flags.
  • Public-board coverage0 sources
    No public big board has ranked this prospect yet. The grade rests entirely on stats, measurables, and age — hold it loosely.
  • Predicted-pick range#107–204 · 97-pick spread
    The model's own projections scatter widely for this prospect — the landing spot is genuinely uncertain.
  • Age20.8 yrs
    Within the typical CB draft-age band (~23).

Case for / case against

Named, concrete signals — every flag cites numbers, comp players, or schedule context.

Reasons to fade
No athletic testing
medium
No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Consensus skeptic
medium
1 board place him at mean rank #222; model has him #38 — a 184-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Reasons to buy
No opportunity flags raised.
Scheme context
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Teams likely to draft

Based on each team's roster depth at CB / S, age, and recent capital invested.

BLT#1 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short5Recent picks spent hereLittle
ARZ#2 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short5Recent picks spent hereLittle
SL#3 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short5Recent picks spent hereLittle
CLV#4 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short5Recent picks spent hereLittle
HST#5 fit
Need at positionSevereQuality starters0Roster spots short5Recent picks spent hereLittle
Scout reports
Paste in any scouting report you trust; Draftanomics pulls out the concrete claims so you can weigh them against the model on the same page.
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